TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13061646
Played Sep 2Finished
Jan Srnka
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119115811116––
Simon Holik
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:15 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeJan Srnka to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Srnka above · Simon Holik below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 72 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Jan Srnka at 55.8%
72 points played in total.
H2H Jan Srnka 4–2 Simon Holik Simon Holik has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:15What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Srnka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Srnka
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Srnka 1598 vs Holik 1533
Srnka
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Srnka 40% vs Holik 80%
Holik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Srnka 60% vs Holik 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Srnka +1 · Holik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Srnka) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSrnka 1.67 / Holik 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Srnka)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13061646
Srnka1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 34 of 55
Up 2–0, closes it80% 16 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it74% 25 of 34
Holik2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 14 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back25% 6 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSrnka4wins
AwayHolik2wins
2 of 6 to a deciderSrnka leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSrnka80%4 of 5
AwayHolikn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Srnka5Holik1n = 6Srnka took 5 of 6
S2Srnka3Holik3n = 6split evenly
S3Srnka2Holik4n = 6Holik took 4 of 6
S4Srnka4Holik2n = 6Srnka took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricSrnkaHolikS − HBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match42.737.3+5.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSrnkaHolikBasisWin rate · lifetime81 / 144 vs 105 / 20256.3%52%81 / 144 vs 105 / 202Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.639.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SrnkaSrnka 1.67/Holik 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Srnka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Srnka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 2 · 07:25J. Srnka—11118113S. Holik—951161
LJul 1 · 14:05J. Srnka—910111162S. Holik—111275113
WJul 1 · 11:25J. Srnka—119119113S. Holik—81161162
WJun 25 · 07:25J. Srnka—111110113S. Holik—971251
LFeb 23 · 11:25J. Srnka—1110641S. Holik—81211113
WFeb 23 · 09:25J. Srnka—111110113S. Holik—851251
J. Srnka10
LSep 2 · 10:40B. Budik1.59111111153J. Srnka2.126136131WSep 2 · 08:55T. Rein2.63151311662J. Srnka1.441711611113LSep 2 · 08:25B. Budik1.772012113J. Srnka1.93181060WAug 27 · 13:38J. Srnka1.53914911113J. Sebl2.38111211492LAug 27 · 12:20J. Sebl2.258111111113J. Srnka1.5711138882LAug 27 · 11:50L. Moravec1.83111189113J. Srnka1.8389111192WAug 27 · 10:50J. Srnka1.916111110113B. Budik1.7311861262LAug 24 · 14:03J. Srnka1.50115881M. Filipek2.5091111113WAug 24 · 13:25J. Srnka1.53211111113M. Filipek2.38234781LAug 24 · 11:55B. Budik1.9551111113J. Srnka1.74117641
S. Holik10
WSep 2 · 10:09S. Holik1.571011111113T. Rein2.2512115572LSep 2 · 09:25S. Holik1.95511116102B. Budik1.77115811123WSep 2 · 07:55T. Rein2.2561111772S. Holik1.57118811113WAug 30 · 14:02T. Rein2.509111131S. Holik1.5011413113LAug 30 · 12:20T. Rein2.2011911113S. Holik1.61211791WAug 30 · 11:50J. Dohnal1.6711119562S. Holik2.10881111113WAug 30 · 10:50S. Holik1.91111011113P. Vodal1.80812771WAug 29 · 14:34P. Vodal1.7341710101S. Holik2.00111512123WAug 29 · 13:25S. Holik2.5012711113J. Dohnal1.501011851LAug 29 · 11:55P. Vodal1.61121476113S. Holik2.201012111192
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.