TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13038410
Played Aug 29Finished
Simon Holik
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210711118115––
Jaroslav Dohnal
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:06 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Dohnal to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingSimon Holik above · Jaroslav Dohnal below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 75 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Jaroslav Dohnal at 59.7%
75 points played in total.
H2H Simon Holik 3–6 Jaroslav Dohnal Simon Holik has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:06What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Dohnal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Dohnal
Wrong
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holik 1517 vs Dohnal 1422
Holik
Correct
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holik 60% vs Dohnal 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holik 70% vs Dohnal 30%
Holik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holik -1 · Dohnal +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Dohnal) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolik 2.50 / Dohnal 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Dohnal)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13038410
Holik2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 12 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back29% 6 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Dohnal1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 116 of 208
Up 2–0, closes it93% 54 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it72% 79 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeHolik3wins
AwayDohnal6wins
2 of 9 to a deciderDohnal leads 6–3, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolik66.7%2 of 3
AwayDohnal83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holik3Dohnal6n = 9Dohnal took 6 of 9
S2Holik5Dohnal4n = 9Holik took 5 of 9
S3Holik3Dohnal6n = 9Dohnal took 6 of 9
S4Holik2Dohnal4n = 6Dohnal took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricHolikDohnalH − DBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match36.238.7−2.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolikDohnalBasisWin rate · lifetime100 / 194 vs 401 / 67451.6%59.5%100 / 194 vs 401 / 674Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.340.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DohnalHolik 2.50/Dohnal 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.7%
Dohnal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Holik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 29 · 13:25S. Holik—12711113J. Dohnal—1011851
LJun 28 · 17:20S. Holik—9580J. Dohnal—1111113
WJun 28 · 15:20S. Holik—1011911113J. Dohnal—12411752
WMay 2 · 12:55S. Holik—1111133J. Dohnal—75110
LApr 12 · 13:29S. Holik—611116192J. Dohnal—119811213
LApr 12 · 12:20S. Holik—91170J. Dohnal—1113113
LJun 15 · 14:20S. Holik—1011771J. Dohnal—12811113
LJun 15 · 12:40S. Holik—911571J. Dohnal—11811113
LApr 5 · 14:20S. Holik—116931J. Dohnal—81111113
S. Holik10
WSep 2 · 10:09S. Holik1.571011111113T. Rein2.2512115572LSep 2 · 09:25S. Holik1.95511116102B. Budik1.77115811123WSep 2 · 07:55T. Rein2.2561111772S. Holik1.57118811113LSep 2 · 07:25J. Srnka1.6711118113S. Holik2.10951161WAug 30 · 14:02T. Rein2.509111131S. Holik1.5011413113LAug 30 · 12:20T. Rein2.2011911113S. Holik1.61211791WAug 30 · 11:50J. Dohnal1.6711119562S. Holik2.10881111113WAug 30 · 10:50S. Holik1.91111011113P. Vodal1.80812771WAug 29 · 14:34P. Vodal1.7341710101S. Holik2.00111512123LAug 29 · 11:55P. Vodal1.61121476113S. Holik2.201012111192
J. Dohnal10
WSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192LSep 6 · 08:20J. Dohnal2.10157681T. Hnizdil1.67131111113WSep 6 · 07:20J. Dohnal1.73111111153B. Budik2.007913131WSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962WSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113WSep 5 · 13:25L. Rek1.67127951J. Dohnal2.10101111113LSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193WSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WSep 3 · 21:28D. Pasek1.6784111382J. Dohnal2.101111911113LAug 30 · 11:50J. Dohnal1.6711119562S. Holik2.10881111113
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