TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13061668
Played Sep 2Finished
Tomas Rein
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611118118711711
Simon Holik
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:14 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeSimon Holik to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Rein above · Simon Holik below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 91 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Simon Holik at 59.3%
91 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Rein 12–15 Simon Holik Tomas Rein has won 12 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:14What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Holik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-15 in 27
Holik
Correct
gap of 3 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rein 1517 vs Holik 1512
Rein
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rein 60% vs Holik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rein 50% vs Holik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rein -2 · Holik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Holik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rein form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRein 2.25 / Holik 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Holik)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13061668
Rein2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 97 of 267
Down 0–1, comes back22% 34 of 154
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 83
Holik1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 38 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRein3wins
AwayHolik7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHolik leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRein50%3 of 6
AwayHolik100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rein6Holik4n = 10Rein took 6 of 10
S2Rein6Holik4n = 10Rein took 6 of 10
S3Rein4Holik6n = 10Holik took 6 of 10
S4Rein3Holik4n = 7Holik took 4 of 7
S5Rein0Holik4n = 4Holik took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricReinHolikR − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.436.7+0.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReinHolikBasisWin rate · lifetime386 / 826 vs 103 / 19946.7%51.8%386 / 826 vs 103 / 199Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.039.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolikRein 2.25/Holik 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Holik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Holik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 14:02T. Rein—9111131S. Holik—11413113
WAug 30 · 12:20T. Rein—11911113S. Holik—211791
LAug 29 · 11:25T. Rein—1011861S. Holik—12311113
LJul 29 · 11:50T. Rein—91231182S. Holik—1110119113
LJul 27 · 15:55T. Rein—115711102S. Holik—711116123
WJul 26 · 08:20T. Rein—1111113S. Holik—1280
LJun 26 · 08:55T. Rein—6890S. Holik—1111113
WJun 19 · 10:05T. Rein—1111113S. Holik—4780
LJun 19 · 07:55T. Rein—12128752S. Holik—10101111113
LApr 13 · 08:25T. Rein—111011652S. Holik—712611113
T. Rein10
WSep 6 · 22:35T. Rein1.921211113L. Vich1.7810540WSep 6 · 21:25L. Vich2.3858111182T. Rein1.53111175113LSep 6 · 20:25T. Rein1.40119121192Z. Vyskocil2.75311143113WSep 6 · 18:55T. Jr1.50116471T. Rein2.5091111113WSep 5 · 10:20T. Rein1.73771211113P. Vodal2.00111110972WSep 5 · 08:55T. Rein1.80141114163P. Vodal1.91121312141WSep 5 · 07:55T. Rein4.00981111113T. Hnizdil1.2211119572LSep 5 · 06:55T. Rein1.9113661142B. Budik1.801111119113LSep 3 · 14:09T. Hnizdil1.251111113T. Rein3.753990LSep 3 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.611181110113T. Rein2.2091181272
S. Holik10
WSep 2 · 10:09S. Holik1.571011111113T. Rein2.2512115572LSep 2 · 09:25S. Holik1.95511116102B. Budik1.77115811123LSep 2 · 07:25J. Srnka1.6711118113S. Holik2.10951161WAug 30 · 14:02T. Rein2.509111131S. Holik1.5011413113LAug 30 · 12:20T. Rein2.2011911113S. Holik1.61211791WAug 30 · 11:50J. Dohnal1.6711119562S. Holik2.10881111113WAug 30 · 10:50S. Holik1.91111011113P. Vodal1.80812771WAug 29 · 14:34P. Vodal1.7341710101S. Holik2.00111512123WAug 29 · 13:25S. Holik2.5012711113J. Dohnal1.501011851LAug 29 · 11:55P. Vodal1.61121476113S. Holik2.201012111192
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.