Tomas Rein vs Simon Holik 3-1

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupMatch #13044899

Played Aug 30Finished

Tomas Rein

Home

2.20

At publish

Won last 4

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 4

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

112911117119––

Simon Holik

Away

1.62

At publish

Won last 4

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Won last 4

The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:45 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%

Graded at full time

Simon Holik to win

57.7%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

no pick shipped

How it is goingTomas Rein above · Simon Holik below

Set 1 · 11-2

Set 2 · 9-11

Set 3 · 11-7

Set 4 · 11-9

Point 71 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Simon Holik at 57.7%

71 points played in total.

H2H Tomas Rein 12–15 Simon Holik Tomas Rein has won 12 of their 27 meetings.

Last 10 · 3–7Same sideHead to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 23:45

What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.61 (58%)

Holik

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

12-15 in 27

Holik

Wrong

gap of 3 in 27, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Rein 1530 vs Holik 1520

Rein

Correct

both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Rein 80% vs Holik 80%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Rein 70% vs Holik 80%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Rein +4 · Holik +4

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Holik)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Holik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsRein 2.20 / Holik 1.61

Signal prob.42% / 58%

Edge (Holik)+0.4pp

TT Cup · #13044899

Rein2.20

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Won last 4

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog37% won 99 of 270

Down 0–1, comes back22% 35 of 156

Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 84

Holik1.61

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

Won last 4

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As favourite57% won 37 of 65

Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9

Up 1–0, closes it86% 18 of 21

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeRein3wins

AwayHolik7wins

4 of 10 to a deciderHolik leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeRein50%3 of 6

AwayHolik100%4 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Rein6Holik4n = 10Rein took 6 of 10

S2Rein6Holik4n = 10Rein took 6 of 10

S3Rein4Holik6n = 10Holik took 6 of 10

S4Rein3Holik4n = 7Holik took 4 of 7

S5Rein0Holik4n = 4Holik took 4 of 4

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away440%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricReinHolikR − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.436.7+0.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricReinHolikBasisWin rate · lifetime386 / 829 vs 103 / 19846.6%52%386 / 829 vs 103 / 198Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.039.4per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Holik

Rein 2.20/Holik 1.61

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

58.1%

Holik · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Rein won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

LAug 30 · 14:02T. Rein—9111131S. Holik—11413113

WAug 30 · 12:20T. Rein—11911113S. Holik—211791

LAug 29 · 11:25T. Rein—1011861S. Holik—12311113

LJul 29 · 11:50T. Rein—91231182S. Holik—1110119113

LJul 27 · 15:55T. Rein—115711102S. Holik—711116123

WJul 26 · 08:20T. Rein—1111113S. Holik—1280

LJun 26 · 08:55T. Rein—6890S. Holik—1111113

WJun 19 · 10:05T. Rein—1111113S. Holik—4780

LJun 19 · 07:55T. Rein—12128752S. Holik—10101111113

LApr 13 · 08:25T. Rein—111011652S. Holik—712611113

T. Rein10

WSep 6 · 22:35T. Rein1.921211113L. Vich1.7810540 WSep 6 · 21:25L. Vich2.3858111182T. Rein1.53111175113 LSep 6 · 20:25T. Rein1.40119121192Z. Vyskocil2.75311143113 WSep 6 · 18:55T. Jr1.50116471T. Rein2.5091111113 WSep 5 · 10:20T. Rein1.73771211113P. Vodal2.00111110972 WSep 5 · 08:55T. Rein1.80141114163P. Vodal1.91121312141 WSep 5 · 07:55T. Rein4.00981111113T. Hnizdil1.2211119572 LSep 5 · 06:55T. Rein1.9113661142B. Budik1.801111119113 LSep 3 · 14:09T. Hnizdil1.251111113T. Rein3.753990 LSep 3 · 12:55V. Koutnik1.611181110113T. Rein2.2091181272

S. Holik10

WSep 2 · 10:09S. Holik1.571011111113T. Rein2.2512115572 LSep 2 · 09:25S. Holik1.95511116102B. Budik1.77115811123 WSep 2 · 07:55T. Rein2.2561111772S. Holik1.57118811113 LSep 2 · 07:25J. Srnka1.6711118113S. Holik2.10951161 WAug 30 · 14:02T. Rein2.509111131S. Holik1.5011413113 WAug 30 · 11:50J. Dohnal1.6711119562S. Holik2.10881111113 WAug 30 · 10:50S. Holik1.91111011113P. Vodal1.80812771 WAug 29 · 14:34P. Vodal1.7341710101S. Holik2.00111512123 WAug 29 · 13:25S. Holik2.5012711113J. Dohnal1.501011851 LAug 29 · 11:55P. Vodal1.61121476113S. Holik2.201012111192

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