TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13043875
Played Aug 30Finished
Simon Holik
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181012117117––
Petr Vodal
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSimon Holik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSimon Holik above · Petr Vodal below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 77 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Simon Holik at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Simon Holik 8–11 Petr Vodal Simon Holik has won 8 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:42What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vodal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-11 in 19
Vodal
Wrong
gap of 3 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holik 1517 vs Vodal 1413
Holik
Correct
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holik 60% vs Vodal 40%
Holik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holik 70% vs Vodal 20%
Holik
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holik +2 · Vodal -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vodal) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vodal form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolik 1.91 / Vodal 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vodal)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13043875
Holik1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 12 of 30
Down 0–1, comes back24% 5 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Vodal1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite51% won 50 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it76% 35 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolik4wins
AwayVodal6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVodal leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolik66.7%2 of 3
AwayVodal71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holik3Vodal7n = 10Vodal took 7 of 10
S2Holik3Vodal7n = 10Vodal took 7 of 10
S3Holik3Vodal7n = 10Vodal took 7 of 10
S4Holik5Vodal2n = 7Holik took 5 of 7
S5Holik2Vodal1n = 3Holik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolikVodalH − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.040.4−1.4per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolikVodalBasisWin rate · lifetime100 / 194 vs 247 / 48451.6%51%100 / 194 vs 247 / 484Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VodalHolik 1.91/Vodal 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vodal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Holik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 14:34S. Holik—111512123P. Vodal—41710101
LAug 29 · 11:55S. Holik—1012111192P. Vodal—121476113
LJul 26 · 09:29S. Holik—101060P. Vodal—1212113
LJul 26 · 06:50S. Holik—8770P. Vodal—1111113
LOct 12 · 12:50S. Holik—1199111P. Vodal—91111133
LSep 7 · 13:40S. Holik—10121081P. Vodal—121012113
LSep 7 · 11:10S. Holik—61080P. Vodal—1112113
WJun 15 · 11:10S. Holik—811811123P. Vodal—119119102
WJun 15 · 06:50S. Holik—11125113P. Vodal—8101171
WJun 6 · 14:40S. Holik—581111113P. Vodal—11113832
S. Holik10
WSep 2 · 10:09S. Holik1.571011111113T. Rein2.2512115572LSep 2 · 09:25S. Holik1.95511116102B. Budik1.77115811123WSep 2 · 07:55T. Rein2.2561111772S. Holik1.57118811113LSep 2 · 07:25J. Srnka1.6711118113S. Holik2.10951161WAug 30 · 14:02T. Rein2.509111131S. Holik1.5011413113LAug 30 · 12:20T. Rein2.2011911113S. Holik1.61211791WAug 30 · 11:50J. Dohnal1.6711119562S. Holik2.10881111113WAug 29 · 14:34P. Vodal1.7341710101S. Holik2.00111512123WAug 29 · 13:25S. Holik2.5012711113J. Dohnal1.501011851LAug 29 · 11:55P. Vodal1.61121476113S. Holik2.201012111192
P. Vodal10
LSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192WSep 6 · 08:50B. Budik1.5361181192P. Vodal2.38117119113WSep 6 · 07:50P. Vodal3.75116118113T. Hnizdil1.2581171192LSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962LSep 5 · 10:20T. Rein1.73771211113P. Vodal2.00111110972LSep 5 · 08:55T. Rein1.80141114163P. Vodal1.91121312141LSep 5 · 08:25B. Budik1.671111113P. Vodal2.105690LSep 5 · 07:25P. Vodal3.4011680T. Hnizdil1.301311113LAug 29 · 14:34P. Vodal1.7341710101S. Holik2.00111512123WAug 29 · 11:55P. Vodal1.61121476113S. Holik2.201012111192
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