TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13039509
Played Aug 29Finished
Petr Vodal
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
12101412711611119
Simon Holik
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:48 and never touched — 55.9% is still 55.9%
Graded at full timePetr Vodal to win
55.9%
55.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Vodal above · Simon Holik below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 103 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Petr Vodal at 55.9%
103 points played in total.
H2H Petr Vodal 10–7 Simon Holik Simon Holik has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 02:48What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vodal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-7 in 17
Vodal
Correct
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vodal 1393 vs Holik 1536
Holik
Wrong
both rated, 143 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vodal 20% vs Holik 80%
Holik
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vodal 30% vs Holik 70%
Holik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vodal +1 · Holik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Vodal) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVodal 1.61 / Holik 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Vodal)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13039509
Vodal1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
0%takes the first set · 0 of 10
As favourite51% won 49 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it76% 34 of 45
Holik2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 12 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back29% 6 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVodal6wins
AwayHolik4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVodal leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVodal57.1%4 of 7
AwayHolik33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vodal7Holik3n = 10Vodal took 7 of 10
S2Vodal6Holik4n = 10Vodal took 6 of 10
S3Vodal8Holik2n = 10Vodal took 8 of 10
S4Vodal3Holik4n = 7Holik took 4 of 7
S5Vodal1Holik3n = 4Holik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVodalHolikV − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.638.7+1.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVodalHolikBasisWin rate · lifetime247 / 483 vs 101 / 19751.1%51.3%247 / 483 vs 101 / 197Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VodalVodal 1.61/Holik 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Vodal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vodal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 26 · 09:29P. Vodal—1212113S. Holik—101060
WJul 26 · 06:50P. Vodal—1111113S. Holik—8770
WOct 12 · 12:50P. Vodal—91111133S. Holik—1199111
WSep 7 · 13:40P. Vodal—121012113S. Holik—10121081
WSep 7 · 11:10P. Vodal—1112113S. Holik—61080
LJun 15 · 11:10P. Vodal—119119102S. Holik—811811123
LJun 15 · 06:50P. Vodal—8101171S. Holik—11125113
LJun 6 · 14:40P. Vodal—11113832S. Holik—581111113
LMay 11 · 14:50P. Vodal—116111262S. Holik—911914113
WApr 12 · 12:20P. Vodal—611811113S. Holik—11811792
P. Vodal10
LSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192WSep 6 · 08:50B. Budik1.5361181192P. Vodal2.38117119113WSep 6 · 07:50P. Vodal3.75116118113T. Hnizdil1.2581171192LSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962LSep 5 · 10:20T. Rein1.73771211113P. Vodal2.00111110972LSep 5 · 08:55T. Rein1.80141114163P. Vodal1.91121312141LSep 5 · 08:25B. Budik1.671111113P. Vodal2.105690LSep 5 · 07:25P. Vodal3.4011680T. Hnizdil1.301311113LAug 30 · 13:30P. Vodal1.73107111172J. Dohnal2.00121197113WAug 30 · 12:50P. Vodal2.001011116123J. Dohnal1.73126311102
S. Holik10
WSep 2 · 10:09S. Holik1.571011111113T. Rein2.2512115572LSep 2 · 09:25S. Holik1.95511116102B. Budik1.77115811123WSep 2 · 07:55T. Rein2.2561111772S. Holik1.57118811113LSep 2 · 07:25J. Srnka1.6711118113S. Holik2.10951161WAug 30 · 14:02T. Rein2.509111131S. Holik1.5011413113LAug 30 · 12:20T. Rein2.2011911113S. Holik1.61211791WAug 30 · 11:50J. Dohnal1.6711119562S. Holik2.10881111113WAug 30 · 10:50S. Holik1.91111011113P. Vodal1.80812771WAug 29 · 14:34P. Vodal1.7341710101S. Holik2.00111512123WAug 29 · 13:25S. Holik2.5012711113J. Dohnal1.501011851
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