TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13044897
Played Aug 30Finished
Jaroslav Dohnal
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118118911511611
Simon Holik
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:45 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Dohnal to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJaroslav Dohnal above · Simon Holik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 91 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Jaroslav Dohnal at 57.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Dohnal 6–4 Simon Holik Simon Holik has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:45What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Dohnal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Dohnal
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dohnal 1368 vs Holik 1520
Holik
Correct
both rated, 153 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dohnal 20% vs Holik 80%
Holik
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dohnal 30% vs Holik 70%
Holik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dohnal -3 · Holik +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Dohnal) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDohnal 1.67 / Holik 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Dohnal)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13044897
Dohnal1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 116 of 211
Up 2–0, closes it92% 54 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it71% 79 of 112
Holik2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 12 of 30
Down 0–1, comes back24% 5 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDohnal6wins
AwayHolik4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDohnal leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDohnal71.4%5 of 7
AwayHolik66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dohnal7Holik3n = 10Dohnal took 7 of 10
S2Dohnal5Holik5n = 10split evenly
S3Dohnal6Holik4n = 10Dohnal took 6 of 10
S4Dohnal4Holik3n = 7Dohnal took 4 of 7
S5Dohnal1Holik2n = 3Holik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDohnalHolikD − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.037.5+1.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDohnalHolikBasisWin rate · lifetime402 / 678 vs 103 / 19859.3%52%402 / 678 vs 103 / 198Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.639.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DohnalDohnal 1.67/Holik 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Dohnal · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Holik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 11:50J. Dohnal—11119562S. Holik—881111113
LAug 29 · 13:25J. Dohnal—1011851S. Holik—12711113
WJun 28 · 17:20J. Dohnal—1111113S. Holik—9580
LJun 28 · 15:20J. Dohnal—12411752S. Holik—1011911113
LMay 2 · 12:55J. Dohnal—75110S. Holik—1111133
WApr 12 · 13:29J. Dohnal—119811213S. Holik—611116192
WApr 12 · 12:20J. Dohnal—1113113S. Holik—91170
WJun 15 · 14:20J. Dohnal—12811113S. Holik—1011771
WJun 15 · 12:40J. Dohnal—11811113S. Holik—911571
WApr 5 · 14:20J. Dohnal—81111113S. Holik—116931
J. Dohnal10
WSep 6 · 10:04J. Dohnal1.83111135113P. Vodal1.8364111192LSep 6 · 08:20J. Dohnal2.10157681T. Hnizdil1.67131111113WSep 6 · 07:20J. Dohnal1.73111111153B. Budik2.007913131WSep 6 · 06:20J. Dohnal1.801181011113P. Vodal1.9171112962WSep 5 · 14:30A. Jr2.2587111182J. Dohnal1.55111189113WSep 5 · 13:25L. Rek1.67127951J. Dohnal2.10101111113LSep 5 · 12:25J. Dohnal1.33918261A. Jr3.2511161193WSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WSep 3 · 21:28D. Pasek1.6784111382J. Dohnal2.101111911113WSep 3 · 20:20J. Dohnal2.001612125153M. Filipek1.7314101411132
S. Holik10
WSep 2 · 10:09S. Holik1.571011111113T. Rein2.2512115572LSep 2 · 09:25S. Holik1.95511116102B. Budik1.77115811123WSep 2 · 07:55T. Rein2.2561111772S. Holik1.57118811113LSep 2 · 07:25J. Srnka1.6711118113S. Holik2.10951161WAug 30 · 14:02T. Rein2.509111131S. Holik1.5011413113LAug 30 · 12:20T. Rein2.2011911113S. Holik1.61211791WAug 30 · 10:50S. Holik1.91111011113P. Vodal1.80812771WAug 29 · 14:34P. Vodal1.7341710101S. Holik2.00111512123WAug 29 · 13:25S. Holik2.5012711113J. Dohnal1.501011851LAug 29 · 11:55P. Vodal1.61121476113S. Holik2.201012111192
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