TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13023894
Played Aug 27Finished
Jachym Sebl
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111113118118118
Jan Srnka
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:53 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeJan Srnka to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJachym Sebl above · Jan Srnka below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 100 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Jan Srnka at 60.1%
100 points played in total.
H2H Jachym Sebl 7–12 Jan Srnka Jachym Sebl has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:53What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Srnka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-12 in 19
Srnka
Wrong
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sebl 1603 vs Srnka 1633
Srnka
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sebl 60% vs Srnka 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sebl 70% vs Srnka 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sebl -2 · Srnka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Srnka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sebl form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSebl 2.25 / Srnka 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Srnka)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13023894
Sebl2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 67 of 164
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 60
Srnka1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 31 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it83% 15 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it74% 23 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSebl3wins
AwaySrnka7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSrnka leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSebl25%1 of 4
AwaySrnka66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sebl4Srnka6n = 10Srnka took 6 of 10
S2Sebl2Srnka8n = 10Srnka took 8 of 10
S3Sebl2Srnka8n = 10Srnka took 8 of 10
S4Sebl4Srnka3n = 7Sebl took 4 of 7
S5Sebl2Srnka1n = 3Sebl took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSeblSrnkaSebl − SrnkaBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.339.1−6.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSeblSrnkaBasisWin rate · lifetime301 / 644 vs 78 / 13746.7%56.9%301 / 644 vs 78 / 137Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.739.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SrnkaSebl 2.25/Srnka 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Srnka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sebl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 30 · 12:20J. Sebl—6460J. Srnka—1111113
LJul 14 · 06:55J. Sebl—4460J. Srnka—1111113
WJul 8 · 08:25J. Sebl—1111811113J. Srnka—13811792
LJul 1 · 12:55J. Sebl—117991J. Srnka—51111113
LJun 25 · 07:55J. Sebl—521161J. Srnka—11116113
LJun 22 · 13:50J. Sebl—113671J. Srnka—91111113
WJun 22 · 10:50J. Sebl—81111113J. Srnka—111461
WJun 16 · 12:20J. Sebl—1114611113J. Srnka—61611982
LJun 8 · 13:50J. Sebl—1111101162J. Srnka—813129113
LJun 8 · 12:20J. Sebl—5330J. Srnka—1111113
J. Sebl10
WSep 6 · 14:35T. Hnizdil1.46911781J. Sebl2.5411911113WSep 6 · 13:25J. Sebl1.5791111123L. Rek2.251174101WSep 6 · 11:55A. Jr3.25912100J. Sebl1.331114123LSep 6 · 11:25T. Hnizdil1.40118118113J. Sebl2.7581171112WSep 5 · 14:02J. Sebl1.301111113L. Rek3.408890WSep 5 · 12:55J. Sebl1.361111611143A. Jr3.00313112122WSep 5 · 11:55J. Sebl1.73101111113L. Rek2.00125861LSep 5 · 10:55J. Sebl2.7591011101J. Dohnal1.4011129123WAug 31 · 10:35J. Sebl1.67118135113L. Rek2.10411111152WAug 31 · 08:55J. Sebl1.3611911113A. Jr3.00911551
J. Srnka10
LSep 2 · 10:40B. Budik1.59111111153J. Srnka2.126136131WSep 2 · 08:55T. Rein2.63151311662J. Srnka1.441711611113LSep 2 · 08:25B. Budik1.772012113J. Srnka1.93181060WSep 2 · 07:25J. Srnka1.6711118113S. Holik2.10951161WAug 27 · 13:38J. Srnka1.53914911113J. Sebl2.38111211492LAug 27 · 11:50L. Moravec1.83111189113J. Srnka1.8389111192WAug 27 · 10:50J. Srnka1.916111110113B. Budik1.7311861262LAug 24 · 14:03J. Srnka1.50115881M. Filipek2.5091111113WAug 24 · 13:25J. Srnka1.53211111113M. Filipek2.38234781LAug 24 · 11:55B. Budik1.9551111113J. Srnka1.74117641
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