TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12482034
Played Aug 24Finished
Jan Srnka
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
2123114117118––
Martin Filipek
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:55 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeJan Srnka to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Srnka above · Martin Filipek below
Set 1 · 21-23
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 96 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jan Srnka at 64.5%
96 points played in total.
H2H Jan Srnka 1–0 Martin Filipek Martin Filipek has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:55What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Srnka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Srnka 1628 vs Filipek 1484
Srnka
Correct
both rated, 143 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Srnka 60% vs Filipek 40%
Srnka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Srnka 70% vs Filipek 20%
Srnka
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Srnka -1 · Filipek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Srnka) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSrnka 1.53 / Filipek 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Srnka)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #12482034
Srnka1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 30 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it83% 15 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it79% 23 of 29
Filipek2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 90 of 206
Down 0–1, comes back26% 26 of 99
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSrnka1wins
AwayFilipek0wins
Srnka leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSrnkaFilipekS − FBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.023.0+10.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSrnkaFilipekBasisWin rate · lifetime76 / 134 vs 252 / 57856.7%43.6%76 / 134 vs 252 / 578Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SrnkaSrnka 1.53/Filipek 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.8%
Srnka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Srnka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 11 · 10:50J. Srnka—1111113M. Filipek—6980
J. Srnka10
LSep 2 · 10:40B. Budik1.59111111153J. Srnka2.126136131WSep 2 · 08:55T. Rein2.63151311662J. Srnka1.441711611113LSep 2 · 08:25B. Budik1.772012113J. Srnka1.93181060WSep 2 · 07:25J. Srnka1.6711118113S. Holik2.10951161WAug 27 · 13:38J. Srnka1.53914911113J. Sebl2.38111211492LAug 27 · 12:20J. Sebl2.258111111113J. Srnka1.5711138882LAug 27 · 11:50L. Moravec1.83111189113J. Srnka1.8389111192WAug 27 · 10:50J. Srnka1.916111110113B. Budik1.7311861262LAug 24 · 14:03J. Srnka1.50115881M. Filipek2.5091111113LAug 24 · 11:55B. Budik1.9551111113J. Srnka1.74117641
M. Filipek10
LSep 7 · 07:55R. Muller1.91111311113M. Filipek1.80915471WSep 7 · 07:25D. Pasek1.83101211131M. Filipek1.8312146153WSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173WSep 5 · 17:25M. Filipek2.2011115123Z. Zahradka1.619911101LSep 5 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.4012118113M. Filipek2.751071171WSep 5 · 15:25D. Tichy1.731812861M. Filipek2.00201011113LSep 4 · 14:04P. Chlumsky1.44111110113M. Filipek2.63891251LSep 4 · 12:55P. Chlumsky1.5091511143M. Filipek2.5011139121LSep 4 · 12:25A. Kral2.0011111517113M. Filipek1.7348171962WAug 24 · 14:03J. Srnka1.50115881M. Filipek2.5091111113
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