TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13098105
Played Sep 8Finished
Jan Srnka
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
41111910121171311
Petr Chlumsky
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingJan Srnka above · Petr Chlumsky below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 99 set 5, 13-11
99 points played in total.
H2H Jan Srnka 0–1 Petr Chlumsky Jan Srnka has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Chlumsky beat Srnka 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Srnka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Srnka form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSrnka 1.80 / Chlumsky 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Srnka)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13098105
Srnka1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 34 of 55
Up 2–0, closes it80% 16 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it74% 25 of 34
Chlumsky1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog52% won 17 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back37% 7 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSrnka0wins
AwayChlumsky1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderChlumsky leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSrnkaChlumskyS − CBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match42.046.0−4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSrnkaChlumskyBasisWin rate · lifetime82 / 147 vs 139 / 30155.8%46.2%82 / 147 vs 139 / 301Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SrnkaSrnka 1.80/Chlumsky 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Srnka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Srnka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 8 · 08:55J. Srnka—51161192P. Chlumsky—117116113
J. Srnka10
LSep 8 · 08:55J. Srnka2.2551161192P. Chlumsky1.57117116113LSep 8 · 07:55J. Srnka1.736990R. Jamrich2.001111113WSep 8 · 06:55J. Srnka1.8071111143R. Muller1.911194121LSep 2 · 10:40B. Budik1.59111111153J. Srnka2.126136131WSep 2 · 08:55T. Rein2.63151311662J. Srnka1.441711611113LSep 2 · 08:25B. Budik1.772012113J. Srnka1.93181060WSep 2 · 07:25J. Srnka1.6711118113S. Holik2.10951161WAug 27 · 13:38J. Srnka1.53914911113J. Sebl2.38111211492LAug 27 · 12:20J. Sebl2.258111111113J. Srnka1.5711138882LAug 27 · 11:50L. Moravec1.83111189113J. Srnka1.8389111192
P. Chlumsky10
WSep 8 · 08:55J. Srnka2.2551161192P. Chlumsky1.57117116113LSep 8 · 08:25R. Muller1.611111113P. Chlumsky2.208530LSep 8 · 07:25P. Chlumsky1.839870R. Jamrich1.831111113WSep 4 · 14:04P. Chlumsky1.44111110113M. Filipek2.63891251WSep 4 · 12:55P. Chlumsky1.5091511143M. Filipek2.5011139121LSep 4 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.8391070F. Balcar1.831112113WSep 4 · 10:55P. Chlumsky1.80711117113A. Kral1.9111991192LJul 30 · 09:53P. Chlumsky1.50211871A. Kral2.5011811113LJul 30 · 09:25P. Chlumsky2.005940P. Moravec1.731111113LJul 30 · 07:55F. Marat2.63611811113P. Chlumsky1.4411711852
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