TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13095322
Played Sep 8Finished
Jan Srnka
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
7111191141412––
Radek Muller
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:48 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeJan Srnka to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Srnka above · Radek Muller below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 79 set 4, 14-12 — our read held Jan Srnka at 54.3%
79 points played in total.
H2H Jan Srnka 2–0 Radek Muller Radek Muller has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 22:48What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Srnka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Srnka 1598 vs Muller 1456
Srnka
Correct
both rated, 142 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Srnka 60% vs Muller 20%
Srnka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Srnka 50% vs Muller 30%
Srnka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Srnka -1 · Muller -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Srnka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Muller form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSrnka 1.80 / Muller 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Srnka)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13095322
Srnka1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 34 of 55
Up 2–0, closes it80% 16 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it74% 25 of 34
Muller1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 19 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back19% 4 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSrnka2wins
AwayMuller0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderSrnka leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricSrnkaMullerS − MBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match37.535.0+2.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSrnkaMullerBasisWin rate · lifetime81 / 144 vs 167 / 33256.3%50.3%81 / 144 vs 167 / 332Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.639.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SrnkaSrnka 1.80/Muller 1.91
Hit
What we said
54.3%
Srnka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Srnka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJun 4 · 09:55J. Srnka—114115113R. Muller—81191192
WJun 4 · 06:55J. Srnka—1111113R. Muller—7690
J. Srnka10
LSep 2 · 10:40B. Budik1.59111111153J. Srnka2.126136131WSep 2 · 08:55T. Rein2.63151311662J. Srnka1.441711611113LSep 2 · 08:25B. Budik1.772012113J. Srnka1.93181060WSep 2 · 07:25J. Srnka1.6711118113S. Holik2.10951161WAug 27 · 13:38J. Srnka1.53914911113J. Sebl2.38111211492LAug 27 · 12:20J. Sebl2.258111111113J. Srnka1.5711138882LAug 27 · 11:50L. Moravec1.83111189113J. Srnka1.8389111192WAug 27 · 10:50J. Srnka1.916111110113B. Budik1.7311861262LAug 24 · 14:03J. Srnka1.50115881M. Filipek2.5091111113WAug 24 · 13:25J. Srnka1.53211111113M. Filipek2.38234781
R. Muller10
LSep 7 · 10:04R. Muller1.836470M. Filipek1.831111113LSep 7 · 08:55R. Muller1.91111111472D. Pasek1.80139911113WSep 7 · 07:55R. Muller1.91111311113M. Filipek1.80915471LSep 7 · 06:55R. Muller1.918121111142F. Balcar1.801110139163LSep 1 · 21:53J. Dohnal2.00781112133R. Muller1.731111910112WSep 1 · 20:50O. Knazik1.73961141R. Muller2.0011117113WSep 1 · 19:50R. Muller2.10131111113B. Budik1.60157781LSep 1 · 18:20J. Dohnal2.00612148113R. Muller1.731110121162LAug 28 · 21:53J. Dohnal2.0011118113R. Muller1.73941181LAug 28 · 20:55R. Muller1.576680J. Sebl2.251111113
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