TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13101580
Played Sep 9Finished
Petr Chlumsky
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1199119111161012
Adam Kral
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:08 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timePetr Chlumsky to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Chlumsky above · Adam Kral below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 99 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Petr Chlumsky at 57.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Petr Chlumsky 11–4 Adam Kral Adam Kral has won 4 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:08What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chlumsky
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-4 in 15
Chlumsky
Wrong
gap of 7 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chlumsky 1472 vs Kral 1517
Kral
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chlumsky 20% vs Kral 40%
Kral
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chlumsky 40% vs Kral 60%
Kral
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chlumsky -2 · Kral -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Chlumsky) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chlumsky form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChlumsky 1.73 / Kral 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Chlumsky)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13101580
Chlumsky1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 19 of 35
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it77% 10 of 13
Kral2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 92 of 210
Down 0–1, comes back25% 25 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChlumsky6wins
AwayKral4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderChlumsky leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChlumskyn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKral44.4%4 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chlumsky1Kral9n = 10Kral took 9 of 10
S2Chlumsky5Kral5n = 10split evenly
S3Chlumsky8Kral2n = 10Chlumsky took 8 of 10
S4Chlumsky6Kral4n = 10Chlumsky took 6 of 10
S5Chlumsky3Kral1n = 4Chlumsky took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChlumskyKralC − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match41.541.2+0.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChlumskyKralBasisWin rate · lifetime138 / 302 vs 406 / 77645.7%52.3%138 / 302 vs 406 / 776Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.040.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChlumskyChlumsky 1.73/Kral 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Chlumsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kral won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 10:55P. Chlumsky—711117113A. Kral—11991192
LJul 30 · 09:53P. Chlumsky—211871A. Kral—11811113
WJul 30 · 07:25P. Chlumsky—971111113A. Kral—11116792
WApr 18 · 08:55P. Chlumsky—101111113A. Kral—125691
LApr 10 · 08:25P. Chlumsky—6711111A. Kral—11116133
WMar 28 · 10:25P. Chlumsky—71311163A. Kral—11117141
WSep 20 · 13:25P. Chlumsky—391111113A. Kral—11117672
LSep 17 · 12:55P. Chlumsky—87111172A. Kral—111199113
LAug 5 · 11:55P. Chlumsky—1191171A. Kral—13113113
WJul 8 · 14:25P. Chlumsky—11116113A. Kral—781151
P. Chlumsky10
LSep 9 · 10:55P. Chlumsky2.2551111132D. Sykora1.57117711113LSep 8 · 09:53J. Srnka1.804111011133P. Chlumsky1.91119127112WSep 8 · 08:55J. Srnka2.2551161192P. Chlumsky1.57117116113LSep 8 · 08:25R. Muller1.611111113P. Chlumsky2.208530LSep 8 · 07:25P. Chlumsky1.839870R. Jamrich1.831111113WSep 4 · 14:04P. Chlumsky1.44111110113M. Filipek2.63891251WSep 4 · 12:55P. Chlumsky1.5091511143M. Filipek2.5011139121LSep 4 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.8391070F. Balcar1.831112113WSep 4 · 10:55P. Chlumsky1.80711117113A. Kral1.9111991192LJul 30 · 09:53P. Chlumsky1.50211871A. Kral2.5011811113
A. Kral10
WSep 9 · 11:25L. Moravec2.0010151491A. Kral1.73121712113LSep 4 · 14:35F. Balcar2.25511117113A. Kral1.5711961152WSep 4 · 13:25F. Balcar2.50210111172A. Kral1.50111294113WSep 4 · 12:25A. Kral2.0011111517113M. Filipek1.7348171962LSep 4 · 10:55P. Chlumsky1.80711117113A. Kral1.9111991192LSep 3 · 21:58M. Filipek1.7311911113A. Kral2.00811891WSep 3 · 20:50D. Pasek2.20147791A. Kral1.61121111113LSep 3 · 19:50A. Kral2.10101171192M. Filipek1.67129117113WSep 3 · 18:20J. Dohnal1.67711971A. Kral2.1011911113WJul 30 · 09:53P. Chlumsky1.50211871A. Kral2.5011811113
Upcoming Matches
P. Chlumsky
Nothing scheduled
A. Kral
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.