TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13114139
Played Sep 11Finished
Milan Dvorak
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11510121311811115
Adam Kral
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:26 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeAdam Kral to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMilan Dvorak above · Adam Kral below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 97 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Adam Kral at 61.7%
97 points played in total.
H2H Milan Dvorak 2–4 Adam Kral Milan Dvorak has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:26What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kral
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Kral
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1455 vs Kral 1567
Kral
Wrong
both rated, 111 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 40% vs Kral 80%
Kral
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 50% vs Kral 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak +1 · Kral +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Kral)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kral form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 2.20 / Kral 1.61
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Kral)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13114139
Dvorak2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 37 of 89
Down 0–1, comes back23% 11 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 26
Kral1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 54 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it87% 20 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it67% 35 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeDvorak2wins
AwayKral4wins
1 of 6 to a deciderKral leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorak33.3%1 of 3
AwayKral66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak3Kral3n = 6split evenly
S2Dvorak4Kral2n = 6Dvorak took 4 of 6
S3Dvorak1Kral5n = 6Kral took 5 of 6
S4Dvorak2Kral3n = 5Kral took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricDvorakKralD − KBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match37.541.3−3.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakKralBasisWin rate · lifetime162 / 340 vs 402 / 76947.7%52.3%162 / 340 vs 402 / 769Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.840.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KralDvorak 2.20/Kral 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.7%
Kral · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LJul 8 · 16:50M. Dvorak—12770A. Kral—1411113
LMay 18 · 16:20M. Dvorak—511661A. Kral—11511113
WMay 14 · 14:20M. Dvorak—71711113A. Kral—1115551
LMay 5 · 15:20M. Dvorak—1176141A. Kral—71111163
LApr 8 · 15:50M. Dvorak—131151382A. Kral—1181115113
WMar 27 · 16:50M. Dvorak—11114113A. Kral—991181
M. Dvorak10
WSep 11 · 14:55M. Dvorak2.2011117113D. Sochor1.61961171LSep 9 · 18:05M. Dvorak1.8011971182J. Dvorak1.91811119113LSep 9 · 16:55M. Beran1.6711118123M. Dvorak2.108611101LSep 9 · 16:25D. Sykora1.83111211113M. Dvorak1.83814881WSep 9 · 15:25M. Dvorak1.801111810113J. Dvorak1.9197111272LSep 4 · 18:32J. Melichar1.871111113M. Dvorak1.839740WSep 4 · 16:55R. Jamrich2.0031080M. Dvorak1.731112113LSep 4 · 16:25J. Melichar1.83612119113M. Dvorak1.83111091142WSep 4 · 15:25M. Dvorak1.9111913113Z. Zahradka1.806111151WAug 31 · 18:00M. Dvorak2.101011911113J. Hendrych1.6712811752
A. Kral10
WSep 11 · 15:25L. Moravec2.201011781A. Kral1.6112511113WSep 9 · 14:30D. Sykora1.4010101171A. Kral2.7512126113LSep 9 · 13:25A. Kral2.757101171D. Sykora1.4011129113WSep 9 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.73119911102A. Kral2.00911116123WSep 9 · 11:25L. Moravec2.0010151491A. Kral1.73121712113LSep 4 · 14:35F. Balcar2.25511117113A. Kral1.5711961152WSep 4 · 13:25F. Balcar2.50210111172A. Kral1.50111294113WSep 4 · 12:25A. Kral2.0011111517113M. Filipek1.7348171962LSep 4 · 10:55P. Chlumsky1.80711117113A. Kral1.9111991192LSep 3 · 21:58M. Filipek1.7311911113A. Kral2.00811891
Upcoming Matches
M. Dvorak
Nothing scheduled
A. Kral
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