TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13102895
Played Sep 9Finished
Milan Dvorak
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1191178111012117
Jakub Dvorak
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Dvorak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Dvorak above · Jakub Dvorak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 97 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Milan Dvorak at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Milan Dvorak 9–8 Jakub Dvorak Jakub Dvorak has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:57What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dvorak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-8 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1442 vs Dvorak 1535
Dvorak
Wrong
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 60% vs Dvorak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 50% vs Dvorak 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak -1 · Dvorak +3
Dvorak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dvorak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 1.80 / Dvorak 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dvorak)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13102895
Dvorak1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite44% won 31 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it53% 18 of 34
Dvorak1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog54% won 71 of 131
Down 0–1, comes back27% 16 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDvorak4wins
AwayDvorak6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDvorak leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorak50%3 of 6
AwayDvorak75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak6Dvorak4n = 10Dvorak took 6 of 10
S2Dvorak5Dvorak5n = 10split evenly
S3Dvorak4Dvorak6n = 10Dvorak took 6 of 10
S4Dvorak3Dvorak2n = 5Dvorak took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDvorakDvorakDvorak − DvorakBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match32.434.2−1.8per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime165 / 343 vs 173 / 35448.1%48.9%165 / 343 vs 173 / 354Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakDvorak 1.80/Dvorak 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 15:55M. Dvorak—118315112J. Dvorak—9111113133
WAug 28 · 17:25M. Dvorak—71311113J. Dvorak—1111771
LJul 31 · 16:25M. Dvorak—511361J. Dvorak—11411113
LMay 14 · 15:20M. Dvorak—119471J. Dvorak—41111113
LMay 11 · 17:25M. Dvorak—11771262J. Dvorak—8111110113
WJan 26 · 19:25M. Dvorak—1111113J. Dvorak—5460
WJan 26 · 17:25M. Dvorak—1111113J. Dvorak—7860
LSep 29 · 14:40M. Dvorak—6550J. Dvorak—1111113
LSep 29 · 14:40M. Dvorak—6550J. Dvorak—1111113
WSep 22 · 16:50M. Dvorak—1115113J. Dvorak—41350
M. Dvorak10
LSep 4 · 18:32J. Melichar1.871111113M. Dvorak1.839740WSep 4 · 16:55R. Jamrich2.0031080M. Dvorak1.731112113LSep 4 · 16:25J. Melichar1.83612119113M. Dvorak1.83111091142WSep 4 · 15:25M. Dvorak1.9111913113Z. Zahradka1.806111151WAug 31 · 18:00M. Dvorak2.101011911113J. Hendrych1.6712811752WAug 31 · 16:55M. Dvorak2.0011115113J. Hendrych1.73681151LAug 31 · 15:55M. Dvorak1.73118315112J. Dvorak2.009111113133LAug 31 · 14:55M. Dvorak1.577880J. Melichar2.251111113LAug 28 · 18:00J. Kulveit1.83511147113M. Dvorak1.83118121182WAug 28 · 17:25J. Dvorak2.001111771M. Dvorak1.7371311113
J. Dvorak10
LSep 9 · 15:55M. Beran1.7391111113J. Dvorak2.00115141WSep 8 · 17:23J. Dvorak1.67111158123Z. Zahradka2.10981111102WSep 8 · 16:20Z. Zahradka2.50671191J. Dvorak1.5011113113WSep 8 · 15:50J. Hendrych2.0051111872J. Dvorak1.73116911113LSep 8 · 14:50J. Dvorak3.001211941P. Moravec1.3614411113LSep 6 · 18:34R. Jamrich1.4412311113J. Dvorak2.631011671LSep 6 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.918870R. Jamrich1.801111113WSep 6 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.831111113J. Melichar1.837780WAug 31 · 15:55M. Dvorak1.73118315112J. Dvorak2.009111113133LAug 28 · 17:25J. Dvorak2.001111771M. Dvorak1.7371311113
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