TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13097624
Played Sep 8Finished
Jakub Dvorak
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1214114911411––
Petr Moravec
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:08 and never touched — 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timePetr Moravec to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Dvorak above · Petr Moravec below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 76 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Petr Moravec at 58.2%
76 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Dvorak 1–2 Petr Moravec Jakub Dvorak has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:08What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Moravec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1508 vs Moravec 1571
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 40% vs Moravec 80%
Moravec
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 60% vs Moravec 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak -2 · Moravec +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Moravec) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 3.00 / Moravec 1.36
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Moravec)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13097624
Dvorak3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog55% won 71 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back28% 16 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 34
Moravec1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 41 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it74% 28 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeDvorak1wins
AwayMoravec2wins
2 of 3 to a deciderMoravec leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorakn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayMoravec66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak0Moravec3n = 3Moravec took 3 of 3
S2Dvorak2Moravec1n = 3Dvorak took 2 of 3
S3Dvorak0Moravec3n = 3Moravec took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricDvorakMoravecD − MBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match35.341.3−6.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime170 / 350 vs 104 / 20248.6%51.5%170 / 350 vs 104 / 202Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecDvorak 3.00/Moravec 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.6%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 20 · 14:50J. Dvorak—9490P. Moravec—1111113
LMay 28 · 18:03J. Dvorak—61131392P. Moravec—1161111113
WMay 20 · 15:25J. Dvorak—311611113P. Moravec—11811922
J. Dvorak10
LSep 6 · 18:34R. Jamrich1.4412311113J. Dvorak2.631011671LSep 6 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.918870R. Jamrich1.801111113WSep 6 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.831111113J. Melichar1.837780WSep 6 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.80118612123Z. Zahradka1.914111110102LSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173LSep 5 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.839480D. Tichy1.831111113WSep 5 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.4012118113M. Filipek2.751071171WSep 5 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.83115118113Z. Zahradka1.8341171192WAug 31 · 18:30J. Dvorak2.001111113J. Melichar1.732220WAug 31 · 17:25J. Dvorak2.101111163J. Melichar1.6756140
P. Moravec10
WSep 8 · 15:20Z. Zahradka2.7510580P. Moravec1.401211113WSep 3 · 18:23J. Hrncir1.9011691372P. Moravec1.806111111113WSep 3 · 16:55M. Beran1.73811931P. Moravec2.0011611113LSep 3 · 16:25J. Hrncir1.911011118163P. Moravec1.80126511142WSep 3 · 15:25P. Moravec1.50111187113M. Sochor2.5065111192WSep 1 · 01:50P. Moravec2.501112113M. Beran1.5061080LSep 1 · 24:20J. Cerny2.0014119113P. Moravec1.731251151LAug 31 · 17:49J. Cerny2.001111113P. Moravec1.738590WAug 31 · 14:50D. Tichy2.0091171162P. Moravec1.73116118113LAug 24 · 18:39M. Sulc1.441111108113P. Moravec2.6367121152
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