TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13104273
Played Sep 9Finished
Matej Beran
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911115111114––
Jakub Dvorak
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatej Beran to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Beran above · Jakub Dvorak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-1
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 63 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Matej Beran at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:18What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Beran
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Beran 1514 vs Dvorak 1535
Dvorak
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Beran 80% vs Dvorak 60%
Beran
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Beran 40% vs Dvorak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Beran +1 · Dvorak +3
Dvorak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Beran)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Beran form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBeran 1.73 / Dvorak 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dvorak)-0.3pp
TT Cup · #13104273
Beran1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite47% won 21 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it69% 11 of 16
Dvorak2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog54% won 71 of 131
Down 0–1, comes back27% 16 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricBeranDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime67 / 149 vs 173 / 35445%48.9%67 / 149 vs 173 / 354Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BeranBeran 1.73/Dvorak 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Beran · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Beran won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
M. Beran10
WSep 9 · 14:55M. Beran1.6741111113D. Sykora2.10119991LSep 7 · 13:55M. Beran1.9131111452V. Jr1.80115411113WSep 7 · 12:50M. Beran2.001111113A. Langer1.736440WSep 7 · 11:20V. Jr1.67111166102M. Beran2.10681111123WSep 7 · 10:50D. Sykora1.838860M. Beran1.831111113LSep 3 · 17:53M. Sochor1.571111123M. Beran2.2555100LSep 3 · 16:55M. Beran1.73811931P. Moravec2.0011611113LSep 3 · 15:55M. Beran1.911193111M. Sochor1.8091111133LSep 3 · 14:55M. Beran2.00101181142J. Hrncir1.73129114113LSep 1 · 01:50P. Moravec2.501112113M. Beran1.5061080
J. Dvorak10
LSep 9 · 15:25M. Dvorak1.801111810113J. Dvorak1.9197111272WSep 8 · 17:23J. Dvorak1.67111158123Z. Zahradka2.10981111102WSep 8 · 16:20Z. Zahradka2.50671191J. Dvorak1.5011113113WSep 8 · 15:50J. Hendrych2.0051111872J. Dvorak1.73116911113LSep 8 · 14:50J. Dvorak3.001211941P. Moravec1.3614411113LSep 6 · 18:34R. Jamrich1.4412311113J. Dvorak2.631011671LSep 6 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.918870R. Jamrich1.801111113WSep 6 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.831111113J. Melichar1.837780WSep 6 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.80118612123Z. Zahradka1.914111110102LSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173
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