TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13098019
Played Sep 8Finished
Zdenek Zahradka
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611711113911––
Jakub Dvorak
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:42 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeJakub Dvorak to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZdenek Zahradka above · Jakub Dvorak below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 69 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Jakub Dvorak at 54.3%
69 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Zahradka 37–43 Jakub Dvorak Zdenek Zahradka has won 37 of their 80 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:42What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Dvorak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-43 in 80
Dvorak
Correct
gap of 6 in 80, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zahradka 1374 vs Dvorak 1510
Dvorak
Correct
both rated, 136 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zahradka 20% vs Dvorak 40%
Dvorak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zahradka 20% vs Dvorak 50%
Dvorak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zahradka -2 · Dvorak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Dvorak) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dvorak form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZahradka 2.50 / Dvorak 1.50
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Dvorak)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13098019
Zahradka2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 79 of 214
Down 0–1, comes back16% 18 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 62
Dvorak1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite48% won 29 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it71% 22 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZahradka2wins
AwayDvorak8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDvorak leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZahradkan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayDvorak100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zahradka2Dvorak8n = 10Dvorak took 8 of 10
S2Zahradka6Dvorak4n = 10Zahradka took 6 of 10
S3Zahradka6Dvorak4n = 10Zahradka took 6 of 10
S4Zahradka2Dvorak4n = 6Dvorak took 4 of 6
S5Zahradka0Dvorak4n = 4Dvorak took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricZahradkaDvorakZ − DBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match34.838.7−3.9per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZahradkaDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime417 / 836 vs 171 / 35249.9%48.6%417 / 836 vs 171 / 352Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.636.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakZahradka 2.50/Dvorak 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.3%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 14:55Z. Zahradka—4111110102J. Dvorak—118612123
LSep 5 · 14:55Z. Zahradka—41171192J. Dvorak—115118113
WAug 29 · 10:30Z. Zahradka—1111113J. Dvorak—8740
LAug 29 · 06:55Z. Zahradka—7813161J. Dvorak—111111183
WAug 23 · 18:08Z. Zahradka—1111113J. Dvorak—9570
LAug 23 · 15:25Z. Zahradka—51111722J. Dvorak—116711113
LAug 20 · 17:25Z. Zahradka—6350J. Dvorak—1111113
LAug 20 · 15:50Z. Zahradka—871141J. Dvorak—11117113
LAug 5 · 14:55Z. Zahradka—81191152J. Dvorak—119117113
LAug 2 · 17:54Z. Zahradka—8990J. Dvorak—1111113
Z. Zahradka10
LSep 8 · 17:23J. Dvorak1.67111158123Z. Zahradka2.10981111102LSep 8 · 15:20Z. Zahradka2.7510580P. Moravec1.401211113LSep 8 · 14:20Z. Zahradka1.574890J. Hendrych2.251111113WSep 6 · 18:03J. Melichar1.44111011682Z. Zahradka2.63712811113LSep 6 · 17:25J. Melichar1.44117117113Z. Zahradka2.6381151192LSep 6 · 16:25Z. Zahradka1.67119881R. Jamrich2.1091111113LSep 6 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.80118612123Z. Zahradka1.914111110102LSep 5 · 18:04Z. Zahradka1.839118101D. Tichy1.8311711123LSep 5 · 17:25M. Filipek2.2011115123Z. Zahradka1.619911101WSep 5 · 16:25Z. Zahradka2.25111111113D. Tichy1.57913441
J. Dvorak10
WSep 8 · 17:23J. Dvorak1.67111158123Z. Zahradka2.10981111102WSep 8 · 15:50J. Hendrych2.0051111872J. Dvorak1.73116911113LSep 8 · 14:50J. Dvorak3.001211941P. Moravec1.3614411113LSep 6 · 18:34R. Jamrich1.4412311113J. Dvorak2.631011671LSep 6 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.918870R. Jamrich1.801111113WSep 6 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.831111113J. Melichar1.837780WSep 6 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.80118612123Z. Zahradka1.914111110102LSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173LSep 5 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.839480D. Tichy1.831111113WSep 5 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.4012118113M. Filipek2.751071171
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