TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13099864
Played Sep 8Finished
Jakub Dvorak
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1191185118111210
Zdenek Zahradka
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingJakub Dvorak above · Zdenek Zahradka below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 96 set 5, 12-10
96 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Dvorak 44–37 Zdenek Zahradka Zdenek Zahradka has won 37 of their 81 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Dvorak beat Zahradka 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Dvorak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zahradka form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 1.67 / Zahradka 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Dvorak)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13099864
Dvorak1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite48% won 29 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it71% 22 of 31
Zahradka2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 79 of 214
Down 0–1, comes back16% 18 of 116
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDvorak8wins
AwayZahradka2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDvorak leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorak100%8 of 8
AwayZahradkan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak8Zahradka2n = 10Dvorak took 8 of 10
S2Dvorak4Zahradka6n = 10Zahradka took 6 of 10
S3Dvorak3Zahradka7n = 10Zahradka took 7 of 10
S4Dvorak5Zahradka2n = 7Dvorak took 5 of 7
S5Dvorak4Zahradka0n = 4Dvorak took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDvorakZahradkaD − ZBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.035.5+3.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakZahradkaBasisWin rate · lifetime172 / 353 vs 417 / 83748.7%49.8%172 / 353 vs 417 / 837Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakDvorak 1.67/Zahradka 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.6%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 16:20J. Dvorak—11113113Z. Zahradka—671191
WSep 6 · 14:55J. Dvorak—118612123Z. Zahradka—4111110102
WSep 5 · 14:55J. Dvorak—115118113Z. Zahradka—41171192
LAug 29 · 10:30J. Dvorak—8740Z. Zahradka—1111113
WAug 29 · 06:55J. Dvorak—111111183Z. Zahradka—7813161
LAug 23 · 18:08J. Dvorak—9570Z. Zahradka—1111113
WAug 23 · 15:25J. Dvorak—116711113Z. Zahradka—51111722
WAug 20 · 17:25J. Dvorak—1111113Z. Zahradka—6350
WAug 20 · 15:50J. Dvorak—11117113Z. Zahradka—871141
WAug 5 · 14:55J. Dvorak—119117113Z. Zahradka—81191152
J. Dvorak10
WSep 8 · 16:20Z. Zahradka2.50671191J. Dvorak1.5011113113WSep 8 · 15:50J. Hendrych2.0051111872J. Dvorak1.73116911113LSep 8 · 14:50J. Dvorak3.001211941P. Moravec1.3614411113LSep 6 · 18:34R. Jamrich1.4412311113J. Dvorak2.631011671LSep 6 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.918870R. Jamrich1.801111113WSep 6 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.831111113J. Melichar1.837780WSep 6 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.80118612123Z. Zahradka1.914111110102LSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173LSep 5 · 16:55J. Dvorak1.839480D. Tichy1.831111113WSep 5 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.4012118113M. Filipek2.751071171
Z. Zahradka10
LSep 8 · 16:20Z. Zahradka2.50671191J. Dvorak1.5011113113LSep 8 · 15:20Z. Zahradka2.7510580P. Moravec1.401211113LSep 8 · 14:20Z. Zahradka1.574890J. Hendrych2.251111113WSep 6 · 18:03J. Melichar1.44111011682Z. Zahradka2.63712811113LSep 6 · 17:25J. Melichar1.44117117113Z. Zahradka2.6381151192LSep 6 · 16:25Z. Zahradka1.67119881R. Jamrich2.1091111113LSep 6 · 14:55J. Dvorak1.80118612123Z. Zahradka1.914111110102LSep 5 · 18:04Z. Zahradka1.839118101D. Tichy1.8311711123LSep 5 · 17:25M. Filipek2.2011115123Z. Zahradka1.619911101WSep 5 · 16:25Z. Zahradka2.25111111113D. Tichy1.57913441
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