TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13103702
Played Sep 9Finished
Matej Beran
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181168111210––
Milan Dvorak
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:26 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeMatej Beran to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Beran above · Milan Dvorak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 77 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Matej Beran at 55.8%
77 points played in total.
H2H Matej Beran 1–2 Milan Dvorak Matej Beran has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:26What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Beran
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Beran 1526 vs Dvorak 1455
Beran
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Beran 80% vs Dvorak 40%
Beran
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Beran 50% vs Dvorak 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Beran +2 · Dvorak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Beran)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Beran form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBeran 1.67 / Dvorak 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Beran)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13103702
Beran1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite47% won 21 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it69% 11 of 16
Dvorak2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 38 of 89
Down 0–1, comes back24% 11 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBeran1wins
AwayDvorak2wins
2 of 3 to a deciderDvorak leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Beran1Dvorak2n = 3Dvorak took 2 of 3
S2Beran2Dvorak1n = 3Beran took 2 of 3
S3Beran3Dvorak0n = 3Beran took 3 of 3
S4Beran1Dvorak2n = 3Dvorak took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away267%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricBeranDvorakB − DBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match42.342.0+0.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBeranDvorakBasisWin rate · lifetime68 / 150 vs 162 / 33845.3%47.9%68 / 150 vs 162 / 338Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BeranBeran 1.67/Dvorak 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Beran · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Beran won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJan 13 · 18:30M. Beran—91111642M. Dvorak—118511113
LJan 13 · 15:20M. Beran—131113542M. Dvorak—1541111113
WJan 8 · 15:55M. Beran—11711113M. Dvorak—611471
M. Beran10
WSep 9 · 15:55M. Beran1.7391111113J. Dvorak2.00115141WSep 9 · 14:55M. Beran1.6741111113D. Sykora2.10119991LSep 7 · 13:55M. Beran1.9131111452V. Jr1.80115411113WSep 7 · 12:50M. Beran2.001111113A. Langer1.736440WSep 7 · 11:20V. Jr1.67111166102M. Beran2.10681111123WSep 7 · 10:50D. Sykora1.838860M. Beran1.831111113LSep 3 · 17:53M. Sochor1.571111123M. Beran2.2555100LSep 3 · 16:55M. Beran1.73811931P. Moravec2.0011611113LSep 3 · 15:55M. Beran1.911193111M. Sochor1.8091111133LSep 3 · 14:55M. Beran2.00101181142J. Hrncir1.73129114113
M. Dvorak10
LSep 9 · 16:25D. Sykora1.83111211113M. Dvorak1.83814881LSep 4 · 18:32J. Melichar1.871111113M. Dvorak1.839740WSep 4 · 16:55R. Jamrich2.0031080M. Dvorak1.731112113LSep 4 · 16:25J. Melichar1.83612119113M. Dvorak1.83111091142WSep 4 · 15:25M. Dvorak1.9111913113Z. Zahradka1.806111151WAug 31 · 18:00M. Dvorak2.101011911113J. Hendrych1.6712811752WAug 31 · 16:55M. Dvorak2.0011115113J. Hendrych1.73681151LAug 31 · 15:55M. Dvorak1.73118315112J. Dvorak2.009111113133LAug 31 · 14:55M. Dvorak1.577880J. Melichar2.251111113LAug 28 · 18:00J. Kulveit1.83511147113M. Dvorak1.83118121182
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