TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13104486
Played Sep 9Finished
David Sykora
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
10121012116711––
Adam Kral
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:57 and never touched — 63.5% is still 63.5%
Graded at full timeDavid Sykora to win
63.5%
63.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Sykora above · Adam Kral below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 79 set 4, 7-11 — our read held David Sykora at 63.5%
79 points played in total.
H2H David Sykora 30–9 Adam Kral Adam Kral has won 9 of their 39 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Sykora beat Kral 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:57What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Sykora
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-9 in 39
Sykora
Wrong
gap of 21 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sykora 1515 vs Kral 1529
Kral
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sykora 80% vs Kral 60%
Sykora
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sykora 50% vs Kral 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sykora +4 · Kral -1
Sykora
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Sykora) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kral form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSykora 1.40 / Kral 2.75
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Sykora)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13104486
Sykora1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 97 of 157
Up 2–0, closes it91% 51 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it82% 70 of 85
Kral2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 92 of 210
Down 0–1, comes back25% 25 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSykora8wins
AwayKral2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSykora leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSykora83.3%5 of 6
AwayKral25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sykora6Kral4n = 10Sykora took 6 of 10
S2Sykora9Kral1n = 10Sykora took 9 of 10
S3Sykora3Kral7n = 10Kral took 7 of 10
S4Sykora7Kral2n = 9Sykora took 7 of 9
S5Sykora3Kral2n = 5Sykora took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSykoraKralS − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match45.237.9+7.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSykoraKralBasisWin rate · lifetime297 / 554 vs 402 / 77253.6%52.1%297 / 554 vs 402 / 772Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.440.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SykoraSykora 1.40/Kral 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Sykora · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kral won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 13:25D. Sykora—11129113A. Kral—7101171
WJul 12 · 13:25D. Sykora—8111311113A. Kral—11715372
WJul 7 · 11:55D. Sykora—1151111113A. Kral—71131362
WMay 15 · 12:25D. Sykora—1111113A. Kral—5860
LMay 11 · 13:25D. Sykora—811101192A. Kral—118129113
LApr 26 · 17:30D. Sykora—11117862A. Kral—741111113
WApr 26 · 15:50D. Sykora—13116113A. Kral—1191181
WApr 1 · 22:00D. Sykora—811911113A. Kral—11711582
WApr 1 · 18:20D. Sykora—111110113A. Kral—671261
WMar 30 · 22:30D. Sykora—131211113A. Kral—1510461
D. Sykora10
LSep 9 · 14:55M. Beran1.6741111113D. Sykora2.10119991WSep 9 · 13:25A. Kral2.757101171D. Sykora1.4011129113WSep 9 · 12:25D. Sykora1.4011811113L. Moravec2.75911751WSep 9 · 10:55P. Chlumsky2.2551111132D. Sykora1.57117711113WSep 8 · 13:20D. Sochor2.10117110D. Sykora1.671311133LSep 8 · 12:50D. Sykora1.9116100A. Langer1.801111123LSep 8 · 11:20D. Sochor2.25113113113D. Sykora1.5781191172LSep 8 · 10:50V. Jr1.611211113D. Sykora2.2010780WSep 7 · 13:23A. Langer1.5791414652D. Sykora2.2511121211113LSep 7 · 12:20V. Jr1.8091111113D. Sykora1.91111861
A. Kral10
LSep 9 · 13:25A. Kral2.757101171D. Sykora1.4011129113WSep 9 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.73119911102A. Kral2.00911116123WSep 9 · 11:25L. Moravec2.0010151491A. Kral1.73121712113LSep 4 · 14:35F. Balcar2.25511117113A. Kral1.5711961152WSep 4 · 13:25F. Balcar2.50210111172A. Kral1.50111294113WSep 4 · 12:25A. Kral2.0011111517113M. Filipek1.7348171962LSep 4 · 10:55P. Chlumsky1.80711117113A. Kral1.9111991192LSep 3 · 21:58M. Filipek1.7311911113A. Kral2.00811891WSep 3 · 20:50D. Pasek2.20147791A. Kral1.61121111113LSep 3 · 19:50A. Kral2.10101171192M. Filipek1.67129117113
Upcoming Matches
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