TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13116226
Played Sep 11Finished
Milan Dvorak
Home
1.78
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
311119911611––
Adam Kral
Away
1.92
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Kral to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Dvorak above · Adam Kral below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 71 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Adam Kral at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Milan Dvorak 3–4 Adam Kral Milan Dvorak has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:53What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.78 (52%)
Dvorak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1477 vs Kral 1562
Kral
Correct
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 40% vs Kral 80%
Kral
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 50% vs Kral 70%
Kral
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak +2 · Kral +3
Kral
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dvorak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kral form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 1.78 / Kral 1.92
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dvorak)+2.1pp
TT Cup · #13116226
Dvorak1.78
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite44% won 31 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it53% 18 of 34
Kral1.92
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 94 of 213
Down 0–1, comes back25% 26 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeDvorak3wins
AwayKral4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderKral leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorak50%2 of 4
AwayKral66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak4Kral3n = 7Dvorak took 4 of 7
S2Dvorak4Kral3n = 7Dvorak took 4 of 7
S3Dvorak2Kral5n = 7Kral took 5 of 7
S4Dvorak2Kral4n = 6Kral took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricDvorakKralD − KBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match39.741.7−2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakKralBasisWin rate · lifetime164 / 342 vs 403 / 77148%52.3%164 / 342 vs 403 / 771Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.840.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakDvorak 1.78/Kral 1.92
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kral won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 11 · 15:55M. Dvorak—1110138113A. Kral—512111152
LJul 8 · 16:50M. Dvorak—12770A. Kral—1411113
LMay 18 · 16:20M. Dvorak—511661A. Kral—11511113
WMay 14 · 14:20M. Dvorak—71711113A. Kral—1115551
LMay 5 · 15:20M. Dvorak—1176141A. Kral—71111163
LApr 8 · 15:50M. Dvorak—131151382A. Kral—1181115113
WMar 27 · 16:50M. Dvorak—11114113A. Kral—991181
M. Dvorak10
WSep 11 · 16:55M. Dvorak1.57491111113L. Moravec2.2511114752WSep 11 · 15:55M. Dvorak2.201110138113A. Kral1.61512111152WSep 11 · 14:55M. Dvorak2.2011117113D. Sochor1.61961171LSep 9 · 18:05M. Dvorak1.8011971182J. Dvorak1.91811119113LSep 9 · 16:55M. Beran1.6711118123M. Dvorak2.108611101LSep 9 · 16:25D. Sykora1.83111211113M. Dvorak1.83814881WSep 9 · 15:25M. Dvorak1.801111810113J. Dvorak1.9197111272LSep 4 · 18:32J. Melichar1.871111113M. Dvorak1.839740WSep 4 · 16:55R. Jamrich2.0031080M. Dvorak1.731112113LSep 4 · 16:25J. Melichar1.83612119113M. Dvorak1.83111091142
A. Kral10
WSep 11 · 17:25A. Kral1.801111133D. Sochor1.9178110LSep 11 · 15:55M. Dvorak2.201110138113A. Kral1.61512111152WSep 11 · 15:25L. Moravec2.201011781A. Kral1.6112511113WSep 9 · 14:30D. Sykora1.4010101171A. Kral2.7512126113LSep 9 · 13:25A. Kral2.757101171D. Sykora1.4011129113WSep 9 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.73119911102A. Kral2.00911116123WSep 9 · 11:25L. Moravec2.0010151491A. Kral1.73121712113LSep 4 · 14:35F. Balcar2.25511117113A. Kral1.5711961152WSep 4 · 13:25F. Balcar2.50210111172A. Kral1.50111294113WSep 4 · 12:25A. Kral2.0011111517113M. Filipek1.7348171962
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