TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13114128
Played Sep 11Finished
Milan Dvorak
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
411911114117115
Ladislav Moravec
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:26 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeMilan Dvorak to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Dvorak above · Ladislav Moravec below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 84 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Milan Dvorak at 54.9%
84 points played in total.
H2H Milan Dvorak 4–3 Ladislav Moravec Ladislav Moravec has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:26What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Dvorak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dvorak 1469 vs Moravec 1592
Moravec
Wrong
both rated, 123 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dvorak 40% vs Moravec 60%
Moravec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dvorak 50% vs Moravec 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dvorak +2 · Moravec -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Dvorak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDvorak 1.57 / Moravec 2.25
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Moravec)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13114128
Dvorak1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite44% won 31 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it53% 18 of 34
Moravec2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 35 of 88
Down 0–1, comes back20% 8 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeDvorak4wins
AwayMoravec3wins
Dvorak leads 4–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDvorak80%4 of 5
AwayMoravecn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dvorak5Moravec2n = 7Dvorak took 5 of 7
S2Dvorak3Moravec4n = 7Moravec took 4 of 7
S3Dvorak6Moravec1n = 7Dvorak took 6 of 7
S4Dvorak1Moravec3n = 4Moravec took 3 of 4
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home343%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricDvorakMoravecD − MBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match36.033.0+3.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDvorakMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime163 / 341 vs 114 / 26447.8%43.2%163 / 341 vs 114 / 264Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DvorakDvorak 1.57/Moravec 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Dvorak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dvorak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WApr 9 · 14:20M. Dvorak—1111113L. Moravec—7970
WApr 14 · 14:20M. Dvorak—11911143L. Moravec—8114121
WMar 10 · 15:20M. Dvorak—1212123L. Moravec—1010100
LFeb 14 · 15:55M. Dvorak—117971L. Moravec—61111113
LJan 16 · 16:40M. Dvorak—981131L. Moravec—11117113
WJan 6 · 18:50M. Dvorak—1211113L. Moravec—10480
LJan 6 · 16:50M. Dvorak—8121181L. Moravec—11146113
M. Dvorak10
WSep 11 · 15:55M. Dvorak2.201110138113A. Kral1.61512111152WSep 11 · 14:55M. Dvorak2.2011117113D. Sochor1.61961171LSep 9 · 18:05M. Dvorak1.8011971182J. Dvorak1.91811119113LSep 9 · 16:55M. Beran1.6711118123M. Dvorak2.108611101LSep 9 · 16:25D. Sykora1.83111211113M. Dvorak1.83814881WSep 9 · 15:25M. Dvorak1.801111810113J. Dvorak1.9197111272LSep 4 · 18:32J. Melichar1.871111113M. Dvorak1.839740WSep 4 · 16:55R. Jamrich2.0031080M. Dvorak1.731112113LSep 4 · 16:25J. Melichar1.83612119113M. Dvorak1.83111091142WSep 4 · 15:25M. Dvorak1.9111913113Z. Zahradka1.806111151
L. Moravec10
WSep 11 · 16:25D. Sochor1.675680L. Moravec2.101111113LSep 11 · 15:25L. Moravec2.201011781A. Kral1.6112511113WSep 10 · 18:00J. Hendrych1.65111161252L. Moravec2.10661114113WSep 10 · 16:20L. Moravec2.001211113M. Dolezal1.7310860LSep 10 · 15:20L. Moravec2.25511281J. Hendrych1.5711211113WSep 10 · 14:20L. Moravec1.8311119113Z. Zahradka1.83731161WSep 9 · 13:58P. Chlumsky1.83121191182L. Moravec1.83148115113LSep 9 · 12:55P. Chlumsky2.0012713113L. Moravec1.7310111171LSep 9 · 12:25D. Sykora1.4011811113L. Moravec2.75911751LSep 9 · 11:25L. Moravec2.0010151491A. Kral1.73121712113
Upcoming Matches
M. Dvorak1 of 1 neutral
L. Moravec
Nothing scheduled
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