TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13110718
Played Sep 10Finished
Jan Hendrych
Home
1.65
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1161166111214511
Ladislav Moravec
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:33 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeJan Hendrych to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Hendrych above · Ladislav Moravec below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 93 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Jan Hendrych at 55.3%
93 points played in total.
H2H Jan Hendrych 4–3 Ladislav Moravec Ladislav Moravec has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Hendrych beat Moravec 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:33What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Hendrych
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hendrych 1573 vs Moravec 1609
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hendrych 80% vs Moravec 60%
Hendrych
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hendrych 50% vs Moravec 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hendrych +3 · Moravec +1
Hendrych
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hendrych) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHendrych 1.65 / Moravec 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Moravec)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #13110718
Hendrych1.65
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 47 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it78% 32 of 41
Moravec2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 33 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back18% 7 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeHendrych4wins
AwayMoravec3wins
1 of 7 to a deciderHendrych leads 4–3, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHendrych100%3 of 3
AwayMoravec75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hendrych3Moravec4n = 7Moravec took 4 of 7
S2Hendrych5Moravec2n = 7Hendrych took 5 of 7
S3Hendrych5Moravec2n = 7Hendrych took 5 of 7
S4Hendrych2Moravec2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricHendrychMoravecH − MBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match33.431.4+2.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHendrychMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime267 / 522 vs 112 / 26151.2%42.9%267 / 522 vs 112 / 261Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HendrychHendrych 1.65/Moravec 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hendrych · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 10 · 15:20J. Hendrych—11211113L. Moravec—511281
WAug 25 · 18:30J. Hendrych—1111123L. Moravec—97100
LAug 25 · 16:25J. Hendrych—31111882L. Moravec—117711113
WApr 9 · 17:29J. Hendrych—1111113L. Moravec—9760
WApr 9 · 16:20J. Hendrych—41111113L. Moravec—114491
LSep 16 · 09:25J. Hendrych—711881L. Moravec—11511113
LSep 16 · 08:55J. Hendrych—6950L. Moravec—1111113
J. Hendrych10
WSep 10 · 16:50J. Hendrych2.101211115113Z. Zahradka1.6714581172WSep 10 · 15:20L. Moravec2.25511281J. Hendrych1.5711211113WSep 10 · 14:50M. Dolezal2.257990J. Hendrych1.571111113LSep 8 · 17:55J. Hendrych1.95811981P. Moravec1.7511911113WSep 8 · 16:50P. Moravec1.83871131J. Hendrych1.8311117113LSep 8 · 15:50J. Hendrych2.0051111872J. Dvorak1.73116911113WSep 8 · 14:20Z. Zahradka1.574890J. Hendrych2.251111113LAug 31 · 18:00M. Dvorak2.101011911113J. Hendrych1.6712811752LAug 31 · 16:55M. Dvorak2.0011115113J. Hendrych1.73681151LAug 31 · 16:25J. Melichar1.83111110113J. Hendrych1.83571251
L. Moravec10
WSep 10 · 16:20L. Moravec2.001211113M. Dolezal1.7310860LSep 10 · 15:20L. Moravec2.25511281J. Hendrych1.5711211113WSep 10 · 14:20L. Moravec1.8311119113Z. Zahradka1.83731161WSep 9 · 13:58P. Chlumsky1.83121191182L. Moravec1.83148115113LSep 9 · 12:55P. Chlumsky2.0012713113L. Moravec1.7310111171LSep 9 · 12:25D. Sykora1.4011811113L. Moravec2.75911751LSep 9 · 11:25L. Moravec2.0010151491A. Kral1.73121712113LSep 1 · 17:55L. Moravec1.8612812392A. Kral1.7810111011113WSep 1 · 16:50R. Jamrich2.63461191L. Moravec1.4411116113WSep 1 · 15:50L. Moravec2.38611911143A. Kral1.53117118122
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.