TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13109530
Played Sep 10Finished
Ladislav Moravec
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210118116––––
Martin Dolezal
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLadislav Moravec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLadislav Moravec above · Martin Dolezal below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 58 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Ladislav Moravec at 54.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Moravec 6–9 Martin Dolezal Ladislav Moravec has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 11:43What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dolezal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-9 in 15
Dolezal
Wrong
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravec 1590 vs Dolezal 1482
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravec 40% vs Dolezal 20%
Moravec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravec 50% vs Dolezal 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravec -1 · Dolezal -3
Dolezal
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dolezal) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dolezal form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 2.00 / Dolezal 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dolezal)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13109530
Moravec2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 33 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back18% 7 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Dolezal1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 18 of 27
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMoravec3wins
AwayDolezal7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderDolezal leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravec60%3 of 5
AwayDolezal100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec5Dolezal5n = 10split evenly
S2Moravec3Dolezal7n = 10Dolezal took 7 of 10
S3Moravec5Dolezal5n = 10split evenly
S4Moravec1Dolezal8n = 9Dolezal took 8 of 9
S5Moravec3Dolezal2n = 5Moravec took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMoravecDolezalM − DBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.542.1−2.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecDolezalBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 260 vs 150 / 30042.7%50%111 / 260 vs 150 / 300Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 2.00/Dolezal 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Dolezal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 28 · 10:55L. Moravec—157871M. Dolezal—131111113
LMay 20 · 14:29L. Moravec—81111682M. Dolezal—115711113
WMay 20 · 12:55L. Moravec—1112128113M. Dolezal—114101162
LApr 14 · 14:25L. Moravec—911116142M. Dolezal—116311163
WApr 14 · 10:55L. Moravec—119117113M. Dolezal—71121172
LApr 7 · 11:25L. Moravec—531441M. Dolezal—111112113
LMar 31 · 14:03L. Moravec—711991M. Dolezal—11511113
WMar 31 · 12:55L. Moravec—116712113M. Dolezal—811111072
LMar 24 · 14:25L. Moravec—113941M. Dolezal—51111113
LMar 5 · 09:55L. Moravec—11670M. Dolezal—1311113
L. Moravec10
WSep 10 · 18:00J. Hendrych1.65111161252L. Moravec2.10661114113LSep 10 · 15:20L. Moravec2.25511281J. Hendrych1.5711211113WSep 10 · 14:20L. Moravec1.8311119113Z. Zahradka1.83731161WSep 9 · 13:58P. Chlumsky1.83121191182L. Moravec1.83148115113LSep 9 · 12:55P. Chlumsky2.0012713113L. Moravec1.7310111171LSep 9 · 12:25D. Sykora1.4011811113L. Moravec2.75911751LSep 9 · 11:25L. Moravec2.0010151491A. Kral1.73121712113LSep 1 · 17:55L. Moravec1.8612812392A. Kral1.7810111011113WSep 1 · 16:50R. Jamrich2.63461191L. Moravec1.4411116113WSep 1 · 15:50L. Moravec2.38611911143A. Kral1.53117118122
M. Dolezal10
WSep 10 · 17:29Z. Zahradka2.501191011112M. Dolezal1.50611128133LSep 10 · 15:50Z. Zahradka2.751111113M. Dolezal1.404730LSep 10 · 14:50M. Dolezal2.257990J. Hendrych1.571111113LJul 8 · 20:14J. Senk2.10101111113M. Dolezal1.67124841WMay 28 · 18:35Z. Zahradka2.50781141M. Dolezal1.5011118113LMay 28 · 17:25P. Moravec1.6711511113M. Dolezal2.10911761WMay 28 · 16:25M. Dolezal1.83891311113J. Dvorak1.83111111682WMay 28 · 14:55Z. Zahradka2.5010711101M. Dolezal1.5012119123WMay 28 · 14:40M. Dolezal1.33119118113M. Filipek3.2561161172WMay 28 · 13:25M. Filipek3.25118391M. Dolezal1.3391111113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.