TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13099844
Played Sep 8Finished
Jan Hendrych
Home
1.95
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811119911811––
Petr Moravec
Away
1.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Moravec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Hendrych above · Petr Moravec below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 78 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Petr Moravec at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Jan Hendrych 14–10 Petr Moravec Petr Moravec has won 10 of their 24 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Hendrych beat Moravec 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:23What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Moravec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-10 in 24
Hendrych
Wrong
gap of 4 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hendrych 1554 vs Moravec 1547
Hendrych
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hendrych 40% vs Moravec 80%
Moravec
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hendrych 40% vs Moravec 60%
Moravec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hendrych +1 · Moravec -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Moravec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHendrych 1.95 / Moravec 1.75
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Moravec)+1.3pp
TT Cup · #13099844
Hendrych1.95
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 60 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back27% 20 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39
Moravec1.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 41 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it74% 28 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHendrych6wins
AwayMoravec4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHendrych leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHendrych66.7%4 of 6
AwayMoravec50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hendrych6Moravec4n = 10Hendrych took 6 of 10
S2Hendrych6Moravec4n = 10Hendrych took 6 of 10
S3Hendrych5Moravec5n = 10split evenly
S4Hendrych6Moravec3n = 9Hendrych took 6 of 9
S5Hendrych2Moravec3n = 5Moravec took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHendrychMoravecH − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.841.7+1.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHendrychMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime266 / 525 vs 106 / 20550.7%51.7%266 / 525 vs 106 / 205Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecHendrych 1.95/Moravec 1.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 16:50J. Hendrych—11117113P. Moravec—871131
LAug 20 · 17:55J. Hendrych—51121232P. Moravec—1161110113
WAug 20 · 15:20J. Hendrych—1081211143P. Moravec—1211108122
WAug 17 · 15:25J. Hendrych—71111133P. Moravec—1198111
LAug 11 · 15:25J. Hendrych—1171291P. Moravec—71114113
WAug 3 · 18:28J. Hendrych—11913113P. Moravec—8111181
LAug 3 · 17:25J. Hendrych—107111182P. Moravec—121195113
WJul 27 · 15:50J. Hendrych—111186113P. Moravec—42111182
LJul 22 · 18:34J. Hendrych—141141082P. Moravec—1291112113
WJul 22 · 16:55J. Hendrych—1211113P. Moravec—10980
J. Hendrych10
WSep 8 · 16:50P. Moravec1.83871131J. Hendrych1.8311117113LSep 8 · 15:50J. Hendrych2.0051111872J. Dvorak1.73116911113WSep 8 · 14:20Z. Zahradka1.574890J. Hendrych2.251111113LAug 31 · 18:00M. Dvorak2.101011911113J. Hendrych1.6712811752LAug 31 · 16:55M. Dvorak2.0011115113J. Hendrych1.73681151LAug 31 · 16:25J. Melichar1.83111110113J. Hendrych1.83571251LAug 31 · 15:25J. Hendrych1.679790J. Dvorak2.101111113LAug 28 · 18:47J. Hendrych1.806111091A. Langer1.9011912113WAug 28 · 16:20J. Hendrych1.9110111614113M. Sochor1.80126141692WAug 28 · 15:20J. Hendrych2.75614711113M. Sulc1.40111211692
P. Moravec10
LSep 8 · 16:50P. Moravec1.83871131J. Hendrych1.8311117113WSep 8 · 15:20Z. Zahradka2.7510580P. Moravec1.401211113WSep 8 · 14:50J. Dvorak3.001211941P. Moravec1.3614411113WSep 3 · 18:23J. Hrncir1.9011691372P. Moravec1.806111111113WSep 3 · 16:55M. Beran1.73811931P. Moravec2.0011611113LSep 3 · 16:25J. Hrncir1.911011118163P. Moravec1.80126511142WSep 3 · 15:25P. Moravec1.50111187113M. Sochor2.5065111192WSep 1 · 01:50P. Moravec2.501112113M. Beran1.5061080LSep 1 · 24:20J. Cerny2.0014119113P. Moravec1.731251151LAug 31 · 17:49J. Cerny2.001111113P. Moravec1.738590
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