TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13127069
Played Sep 14Finished
Radek Muller
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111012119112611
Filip Marat
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:17 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Muller to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadek Muller above · Filip Marat below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-2
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 91 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Radek Muller at 62.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Radek Muller 9–4 Filip Marat Filip Marat has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:17What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Muller
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-4 in 13
Muller
Wrong
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Muller 1419 vs Marat 1473
Marat
Correct
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Muller 20% vs Marat 60%
Marat
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Muller 20% vs Marat 50%
Marat
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Muller -3 · Marat +1
Muller
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Muller) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marat form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMuller 1.61 / Marat 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Muller)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13127069
Muller1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 33 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it86% 18 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it71% 25 of 35
Marat2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 44 of 105
Down 0–1, comes back40% 25 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back23% 7 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMuller6wins
AwayMarat4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMuller leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMuller66.7%4 of 6
AwayMarat50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Muller6Marat4n = 10Muller took 6 of 10
S2Muller5Marat5n = 10split evenly
S3Muller7Marat3n = 10Muller took 7 of 10
S4Muller4Marat5n = 9Marat took 5 of 9
S5Muller2Marat2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMullerMaratMuller − MaratBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.438.9+1.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMullerMaratBasisWin rate · lifetime164 / 329 vs 237 / 53049.9%44.7%164 / 329 vs 237 / 530Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MullerMuller 1.61/Marat 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Muller · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Marat won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 27 · 12:25R. Muller4391111123F. Marat361178101
WJul 17 · 07:25R. Muller331111113F. Marat239860
LApr 20 · 11:25R. Muller3848111142F. Marat42111136113
LApr 13 · 16:20R. Muller28114941F. Marat4071111113
WMar 2 · 22:55R. Muller4011711113F. Marat32811581
WMar 2 · 21:25R. Muller48117154113F. Marat49811131162
WFeb 18 · 09:25R. Muller541211117133F. Marat49147611112
WDec 16 · 08:55R. Muller4211119113F. Marat34951191
LDec 11 · 03:50R. Muller37811991F. Marat4211911113
LNov 6 · 24:50R. Muller4111611672F. Marat42511411113
R. Muller10
LSep 14 · 08:55R. Muller1.9175111152M. Filipek1.80111197113LSep 14 · 06:55R. Muller1.838490A. Kral1.831111113LSep 8 · 10:25R. Jamrich1.8011811173R. Muller1.919118151LSep 8 · 09:25R. Jamrich1.9111118113R. Muller1.80741191WSep 8 · 08:25R. Muller1.611111113P. Chlumsky2.208530LSep 8 · 06:55J. Srnka1.8071111143R. Muller1.911194121LSep 7 · 10:04R. Muller1.836470M. Filipek1.831111113LSep 7 · 08:55R. Muller1.91111111472D. Pasek1.80139911113WSep 7 · 07:55R. Muller1.91111311113M. Filipek1.80915471LSep 7 · 06:55R. Muller1.918121111142F. Balcar1.801110139163
F. Marat10
LSep 14 · 09:25F. Marat2.009111101A. Kral1.7311911123WSep 14 · 07:25M. Filipek1.8311851162F. Marat1.83911114113LAug 19 · 14:35L. Moravec1.441111123F. Marat2.6388100LAug 19 · 13:25F. Marat2.501161081L. Moravec1.5081112113WAug 19 · 11:55M. Filipek2.101411111032F. Marat1.671281312113WAug 19 · 11:25R. Jamrich1.83111581182F. Marat1.831313117113LJul 31 · 10:24F. Marat1.901110141172M. Tlusty1.80512167113WJul 31 · 09:25M. Filipek2.209540F. Marat1.611111113WJul 31 · 08:25F. Marat1.9111117113A. Kral1.80581131LJul 31 · 06:55M. Tlusty1.8091112133F. Marat1.9111510111
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