TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13127067
Played Sep 14Finished
Radek Muller
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711511119117511
Martin Filipek
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Filipek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Muller above · Martin Filipek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 88 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Martin Filipek at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Radek Muller 15–21 Martin Filipek Radek Muller has won 15 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:17What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Filipek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-21 in 36
Filipek
Correct
gap of 6 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Muller 1401 vs Filipek 1457
Filipek
Correct
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Muller 20% vs Filipek 40%
Filipek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Muller 20% vs Filipek 60%
Filipek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Muller -4 · Filipek +1
Muller
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Filipek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Filipek form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMuller 1.91 / Filipek 1.80
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Filipek)+3.6pp
TT Cup · #13127067
Muller1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 13 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back25% 4 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Filipek1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 42 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it80% 31 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMuller4wins
AwayFilipek6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderFilipek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMuller100%3 of 3
AwayFilipek85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Muller3Filipek7n = 10Filipek took 7 of 10
S2Muller6Filipek4n = 10Muller took 6 of 10
S3Muller5Filipek5n = 10split evenly
S4Muller5Filipek3n = 8Muller took 5 of 8
S5Muller1Filipek3n = 4Filipek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMullerFilipekM − FBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.440.2−1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMullerFilipekBasisWin rate · lifetime164 / 331 vs 263 / 59949.6%43.9%164 / 331 vs 263 / 599Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FilipekMuller 1.91/Filipek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.1%
Filipek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Filipek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 08:55R. Muller3975111152M. Filipek49111197113
LSep 7 · 10:04R. Muller176470M. Filipek331111113
WSep 7 · 07:55R. Muller46111311113M. Filipek35915471
WAug 12 · 12:55R. Muller46511811113M. Filipek4311711772
WJul 17 · 08:55R. Muller341111123M. Filipek2789100
LJul 7 · 22:00R. Muller516131111102M. Filipek50111566123
LJul 7 · 19:25R. Muller30611671M. Filipek4211911113
LApr 30 · 10:03R. Muller4231111982M. Filipek45117511113
LApr 30 · 08:55R. Muller356111081M. Filipek3911512113
WApr 8 · 09:25R. Muller4411118143M. Filipek399711121
R. Muller10
LSep 14 · 07:55R. Muller1.61810111162F. Marat2.20111292113LSep 14 · 06:55R. Muller1.838490A. Kral1.831111113LSep 8 · 10:25R. Jamrich1.8011811173R. Muller1.919118151LSep 8 · 09:25R. Jamrich1.9111118113R. Muller1.80741191WSep 8 · 08:25R. Muller1.611111113P. Chlumsky2.208530LSep 8 · 06:55J. Srnka1.8071111143R. Muller1.911194121LSep 7 · 10:04R. Muller1.836470M. Filipek1.831111113LSep 7 · 08:55R. Muller1.91111111472D. Pasek1.80139911113WSep 7 · 07:55R. Muller1.91111311113M. Filipek1.80915471LSep 7 · 06:55R. Muller1.918121111142F. Balcar1.801110139163
M. Filipek10
WSep 14 · 08:25A. Kral2.00913761M. Filipek1.73111111113LSep 14 · 07:25M. Filipek1.8311851162F. Marat1.83911114113WSep 7 · 10:04R. Muller1.836470M. Filipek1.831111113LSep 7 · 09:25M. Filipek1.831196101F. Balcar1.8361111123LSep 7 · 07:55R. Muller1.91111311113M. Filipek1.80915471WSep 7 · 07:25D. Pasek1.83101211131M. Filipek1.8312146153WSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173WSep 5 · 17:25M. Filipek2.2011115123Z. Zahradka1.619911101LSep 5 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.4012118113M. Filipek2.751071171WSep 5 · 15:25D. Tichy1.731812861M. Filipek2.00201011113
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