TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13127030
Played Sep 14Finished
Adam Kral
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111311711611––
Martin Filipek
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Kral to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAdam Kral above · Martin Filipek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 79 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Adam Kral at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Adam Kral 38–43 Martin Filipek Adam Kral has won 38 of their 81 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:45What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Filipek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-43 in 81
Filipek
Correct
gap of 5 in 81, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kral 1545 vs Filipek 1432
Kral
Wrong
both rated, 113 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kral 80% vs Filipek 40%
Kral
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kral 70% vs Filipek 50%
Kral
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kral +3 · Filipek -1
Kral
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kral)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Filipek form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKral 2.00 / Filipek 1.73
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Filipek)-7.7pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13127030
Kral2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 87 of 200
Down 0–1, comes back26% 26 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 54
Filipek1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 42 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it80% 31 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKral3wins
AwayFilipek7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderFilipek leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKral60%3 of 5
AwayFilipek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kral5Filipek5n = 10split evenly
S2Kral4Filipek6n = 10Filipek took 6 of 10
S3Kral1Filipek9n = 10Filipek took 9 of 10
S4Kral2Filipek5n = 7Filipek took 5 of 7
S5Kral2Filipek1n = 3Kral took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKralFilipekK − FBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.041.4−3.4per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKralFilipekBasisWin rate · lifetime405 / 773 vs 261 / 59752.4%43.7%405 / 773 vs 261 / 597Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.639.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FilipekKral 2.00/Filipek 1.73
Hit
What we said
54%
Kral · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Filipek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 12:25A. Kral6511111517113M. Filipek5448171962
LSep 3 · 21:58A. Kral36811891M. Filipek4211911113
LSep 3 · 19:50A. Kral48101171192M. Filipek50129117113
LAug 15 · 08:25A. Kral331148101M. Filipek3951111123
LAug 5 · 07:55A. Kral2156100M. Filipek341111123
LAug 4 · 11:25A. Kral235990M. Filipek331111113
LJul 31 · 09:53A. Kral381310871M. Filipek45111211113
LJul 31 · 07:25A. Kral2367100M. Filipek341111123
WJul 30 · 14:04A. Kral4011711113M. Filipek31511691
WJul 30 · 13:25A. Kral531111611143M. Filipek52881113122
A. Kral10
WSep 14 · 09:25F. Marat2.009111101A. Kral1.7311911123WSep 14 · 06:55R. Muller1.838490A. Kral1.831111113WSep 11 · 18:25M. Dvorak1.78311961A. Kral1.9211911113WSep 11 · 17:25A. Kral1.801111133D. Sochor1.9178110LSep 11 · 15:55M. Dvorak2.201110138113A. Kral1.61512111152WSep 11 · 15:25L. Moravec2.201011781A. Kral1.6112511113WSep 9 · 14:30D. Sykora1.4010101171A. Kral2.7512126113LSep 9 · 13:25A. Kral2.757101171D. Sykora1.4011129113WSep 9 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.73119911102A. Kral2.00911116123WSep 9 · 11:25L. Moravec2.0010151491A. Kral1.73121712113
M. Filipek10
WSep 14 · 08:55R. Muller1.9175111152M. Filipek1.80111197113LSep 14 · 07:25M. Filipek1.8311851162F. Marat1.83911114113WSep 7 · 10:04R. Muller1.836470M. Filipek1.831111113LSep 7 · 09:25M. Filipek1.831196101F. Balcar1.8361111123LSep 7 · 07:55R. Muller1.91111311113M. Filipek1.80915471WSep 7 · 07:25D. Pasek1.83101211131M. Filipek1.8312146153WSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173WSep 5 · 17:25M. Filipek2.2011115123Z. Zahradka1.619911101LSep 5 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.4012118113M. Filipek2.751071171WSep 5 · 15:25D. Tichy1.731812861M. Filipek2.00201011113
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