TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13131122
Played Sep 15Finished
Ondrej Knazik
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1113118119611411
Martin Filipek
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:00 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeMartin Filipek to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Knazik above · Martin Filipek below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 95 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Martin Filipek at 54.1%
95 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Knazik 15–12 Martin Filipek Martin Filipek has won 12 of their 27 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:00What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Knazik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-12 in 27
Knazik
Wrong
gap of 3 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Knazik 1546 vs Filipek 1482
Knazik
Wrong
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Knazik 40% vs Filipek 80%
Filipek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Knazik 40% vs Filipek 70%
Filipek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Knazik +1 · Filipek +3
Filipek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Knazik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Filipek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKnazik 1.57 / Filipek 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Knazik)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13131122
Knazik1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 67 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it88% 35 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it64% 46 of 72
Filipek2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog42% won 74 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back26% 24 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKnazik5wins
AwayFilipek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKnazik57.1%4 of 7
AwayFilipek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Knazik7Filipek3n = 10Knazik took 7 of 10
S2Knazik7Filipek3n = 10Knazik took 7 of 10
S3Knazik5Filipek5n = 10split evenly
S4Knazik5Filipek3n = 8Knazik took 5 of 8
S5Knazik0Filipek4n = 4Filipek took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKnazikFilipekK − FBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.537.1+2.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKnazikFilipekBasisWin rate · lifetime449 / 873 vs 264 / 60051.4%44%449 / 873 vs 264 / 600Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KnazikKnazik 1.57/Filipek 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Knazik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Filipek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 14 · 12:25O. Knazik3911116113M. Filipek33981151
WAug 11 · 13:35O. Knazik4513118133M. Filipek4111811111
LAug 11 · 11:20O. Knazik47118117102M. Filipek44611411123
LJun 16 · 12:55O. Knazik3711115552M. Filipek45841111113
WApr 14 · 13:20O. Knazik331111113M. Filipek227960
LApr 14 · 10:50O. Knazik33681181M. Filipek4111118113
LApr 13 · 10:55O. Knazik4381161172M. Filipek50118119113
WApr 3 · 17:25O. Knazik4381111133M. Filipek361168111
WApr 1 · 13:25O. Knazik331111113M. Filipek123540
LMar 27 · 14:55O. Knazik42117311102M. Filipek47711116123
O. Knazik10
WSep 15 · 11:50T. Hnizdil1.503411111O. Knazik2.5011117133WSep 14 · 14:13S. Holik1.8351191162O. Knazik1.83119118113LSep 14 · 12:55O. Knazik1.835111071J. Osmera1.8311412113LSep 14 · 11:55O. Knazik1.67117691S. Holik2.1051111113LSep 14 · 10:55O. Knazik2.2548100T. Hnizdil1.571111123WSep 3 · 14:39V. Koutnik2.25441161O. Knazik1.5711119113LSep 3 · 13:25T. Hnizdil1.5711118143O. Knazik2.259611121WSep 3 · 12:25O. Knazik1.401111113T. Rein2.753540WSep 3 · 10:55V. Koutnik2.20118971O. Knazik1.6161111113LSep 1 · 21:25O. Knazik2.401113561B. Budik1.5181511113
M. Filipek10
WSep 15 · 11:20J. Osmera2.258330M. Filipek1.571111113WSep 14 · 10:35M. Filipek1.80148811113A. Kral1.90121111982WSep 14 · 08:55R. Muller1.9175111152M. Filipek1.80111197113WSep 14 · 08:25A. Kral2.00913761M. Filipek1.73111111113LSep 14 · 07:25M. Filipek1.8311851162F. Marat1.83911114113WSep 7 · 10:04R. Muller1.836470M. Filipek1.831111113LSep 7 · 09:25M. Filipek1.831196101F. Balcar1.8361111123LSep 7 · 07:55R. Muller1.91111311113M. Filipek1.80915471WSep 7 · 07:25D. Pasek1.83101211131M. Filipek1.8312146153WSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173
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