TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13128627
Played Sep 14Finished
Martin Filipek
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1412811811119118
Adam Kral
Away
1.90
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:01 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Kral to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Filipek above · Adam Kral below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 103 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Adam Kral at 54.0%
103 points played in total.
H2H Martin Filipek 44–38 Adam Kral Adam Kral has won 38 of their 82 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Filipek beat Kral 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:01What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Filipek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
44-38 in 82
Filipek
Correct
gap of 6 in 82, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Filipek 1457 vs Kral 1540
Kral
Wrong
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Filipek 60% vs Kral 80%
Kral
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Filipek 60% vs Kral 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Filipek +2 · Kral +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kral)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kral form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFilipek 1.80 / Kral 1.90
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Filipek)-5.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13128627
Filipek1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 42 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it80% 31 of 39
Kral1.90
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 87 of 200
Down 0–1, comes back26% 26 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFilipek8wins
AwayKral2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderFilipek leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFilipek100%6 of 6
AwayKral50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Filipek6Kral4n = 10Filipek took 6 of 10
S2Filipek6Kral4n = 10Filipek took 6 of 10
S3Filipek9Kral1n = 10Filipek took 9 of 10
S4Filipek5Kral2n = 7Filipek took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFilipekKralF − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.636.2+4.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFilipekKralBasisWin rate · lifetime263 / 599 vs 406 / 77543.9%52.4%263 / 599 vs 406 / 775Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.540.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KralFilipek 1.80/Kral 1.90
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kral · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Filipek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 08:25M. Filipek44111111113A. Kral35913761
LSep 4 · 12:25M. Filipek5448171962A. Kral6511111517113
WSep 3 · 21:58M. Filipek4211911113A. Kral36811891
WSep 3 · 19:50M. Filipek50129117113A. Kral48101171192
WAug 15 · 08:25M. Filipek3951111123A. Kral331148101
WAug 5 · 07:55M. Filipek341111123A. Kral2156100
WAug 4 · 11:25M. Filipek331111113A. Kral235990
WJul 31 · 09:53M. Filipek45111211113A. Kral381310871
WJul 31 · 07:25M. Filipek341111123A. Kral2367100
LJul 30 · 14:04M. Filipek31511691A. Kral4011711113
M. Filipek10
WSep 14 · 08:55R. Muller1.9175111152M. Filipek1.80111197113WSep 14 · 08:25A. Kral2.00913761M. Filipek1.73111111113LSep 14 · 07:25M. Filipek1.8311851162F. Marat1.83911114113WSep 7 · 10:04R. Muller1.836470M. Filipek1.831111113LSep 7 · 09:25M. Filipek1.831196101F. Balcar1.8361111123LSep 7 · 07:55R. Muller1.91111311113M. Filipek1.80915471WSep 7 · 07:25D. Pasek1.83101211131M. Filipek1.8312146153WSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173WSep 5 · 17:25M. Filipek2.2011115123Z. Zahradka1.619911101LSep 5 · 15:55J. Dvorak1.4012118113M. Filipek2.751071171
A. Kral10
WSep 14 · 09:25F. Marat2.009111101A. Kral1.7311911123LSep 14 · 08:25A. Kral2.00913761M. Filipek1.73111111113WSep 14 · 06:55R. Muller1.838490A. Kral1.831111113WSep 11 · 18:25M. Dvorak1.78311961A. Kral1.9211911113WSep 11 · 17:25A. Kral1.801111133D. Sochor1.9178110LSep 11 · 15:55M. Dvorak2.201110138113A. Kral1.61512111152WSep 11 · 15:25L. Moravec2.201011781A. Kral1.6112511113WSep 9 · 14:30D. Sykora1.4010101171A. Kral2.7512126113LSep 9 · 13:25A. Kral2.757101171D. Sykora1.4011129113WSep 9 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.73119911102A. Kral2.00911116123
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