TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13129695
Played Sep 14Finished
Simon Holik
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511119911118611
Ondrej Knazik
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingSimon Holik above · Ondrej Knazik below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 92 set 5, 6-11
92 points played in total.
H2H Simon Holik 15–12 Ondrej Knazik Ondrej Knazik has won 12 of their 27 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Holik beat Knazik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Holik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Knazik form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolik 1.83 / Knazik 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Holik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13129695
Holik1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Knazik1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolik4wins
AwayKnazik6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKnazik leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolikn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKnazik66.7%6 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holik1Knazik9n = 10Knazik took 9 of 10
S2Holik7Knazik3n = 10Holik took 7 of 10
S3Holik4Knazik6n = 10Knazik took 6 of 10
S4Holik3Knazik3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolikKnazikH − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match33.537.4−3.9per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolikKnazikBasisWin rate · lifetime107 / 205 vs 448 / 87252.2%51.4%107 / 205 vs 448 / 872Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolikHolik 1.83/Knazik 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Holik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Knazik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 11:55S. Holik3851111113O. Knazik33117691
LJul 1 · 13:25S. Holik239860O. Knazik331111113
LMay 2 · 10:55S. Holik426129151O. Knazik49111011173
WApr 27 · 11:20S. Holik3961111113O. Knazik29116841
LApr 26 · 13:25S. Holik34812861O. Knazik43111011113
LApr 26 · 10:20S. Holik42511101152O. Knazik49116129113
WApr 20 · 12:50S. Holik44411126113O. Knazik49119101182
WApr 13 · 12:55S. Holik331111113O. Knazik217860
LMar 30 · 12:50S. Holik2586110O. Knazik351111133
LMar 23 · 13:50S. Holik156450O. Knazik331111113
S. Holik10
WSep 14 · 13:25S. Holik2.255101111143T. Hnizdil1.57111248122WSep 14 · 11:55O. Knazik1.67117691S. Holik2.1051111113LSep 14 · 11:25J. Osmera1.91117811113S. Holik1.8051111622WSep 2 · 10:09S. Holik1.571011111113T. Rein2.2512115572LSep 2 · 09:25S. Holik1.95511116102B. Budik1.77115811123WSep 2 · 07:55T. Rein2.2561111772S. Holik1.57118811113LSep 2 · 07:25J. Srnka1.6711118113S. Holik2.10951161WAug 30 · 14:02T. Rein2.509111131S. Holik1.5011413113LAug 30 · 12:20T. Rein2.2011911113S. Holik1.61211791WAug 30 · 11:50J. Dohnal1.6711119562S. Holik2.10881111113
O. Knazik10
LSep 14 · 12:55O. Knazik1.835111071J. Osmera1.8311412113LSep 14 · 11:55O. Knazik1.67117691S. Holik2.1051111113LSep 14 · 10:55O. Knazik2.2548100T. Hnizdil1.571111123WSep 3 · 14:39V. Koutnik2.25441161O. Knazik1.5711119113LSep 3 · 13:25T. Hnizdil1.5711118143O. Knazik2.259611121WSep 3 · 12:25O. Knazik1.401111113T. Rein2.753540WSep 3 · 10:55V. Koutnik2.20118971O. Knazik1.6161111113LSep 1 · 21:25O. Knazik2.401113561B. Budik1.5181511113LSep 1 · 20:50O. Knazik1.73961141R. Muller2.0011117113LSep 1 · 19:20J. Dohnal1.612121111113O. Knazik2.20111013982
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