TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13127081
Played Sep 14Finished
Simon Holik
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
51110121141181412
Tomas Hnizdil
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:15 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeTomas Hnizdil to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSimon Holik above · Tomas Hnizdil below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 98 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Tomas Hnizdil at 55.8%
98 points played in total.
H2H Simon Holik 1–3 Tomas Hnizdil Simon Holik has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 24:15What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Hnizdil
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Hnizdil
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holik 1535 vs Hnizdil 1681
Hnizdil
Wrong
both rated, 146 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holik 60% vs Hnizdil 100%
Hnizdil
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holik 60% vs Hnizdil 90%
Hnizdil
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holik +1 · Hnizdil +5
Hnizdil
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Hnizdil) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hnizdil form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolik 2.25 / Hnizdil 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Hnizdil)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13127081
Holik2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 13 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back22% 5 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Hnizdil1.57
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite69% won 50 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it86% 36 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeHolik1wins
AwayHnizdil3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderHnizdil leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolik33.3%1 of 3
AwayHnizdiln = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holik3Hnizdil1n = 4Holik took 3 of 4
S2Holik1Hnizdil3n = 4Hnizdil took 3 of 4
S3Holik2Hnizdil2n = 4split evenly
S4Holik1Hnizdil2n = 3Hnizdil took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricHolikHnizdilHolik − HnizdilBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match36.239.0−2.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolikHnizdilBasisWin rate · lifetime106 / 204 vs 149 / 24552%60.8%106 / 204 vs 149 / 245Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HnizdilHolik 2.25/Hnizdil 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Hnizdil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Holik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LApr 12 · 11:20S. Holik361111951T. Hnizdil4271311113
LMar 2 · 15:35S. Holik3911371172T. Hnizdil48611119113
WMar 2 · 12:25S. Holik351111133T. Hnizdil2265110
LJul 23 · 12:40S. Holik3510101141T. Hnizdil4412129113
S. Holik10
LSep 14 · 14:13S. Holik1.8351191162O. Knazik1.83119118113WSep 14 · 11:55O. Knazik1.67117691S. Holik2.1051111113LSep 14 · 11:25J. Osmera1.91117811113S. Holik1.8051111622WSep 2 · 10:09S. Holik1.571011111113T. Rein2.2512115572LSep 2 · 09:25S. Holik1.95511116102B. Budik1.77115811123WSep 2 · 07:55T. Rein2.2561111772S. Holik1.57118811113LSep 2 · 07:25J. Srnka1.6711118113S. Holik2.10951161WAug 30 · 14:02T. Rein2.509111131S. Holik1.5011413113LAug 30 · 12:20T. Rein2.2011911113S. Holik1.61211791WAug 30 · 11:50J. Dohnal1.6711119562S. Holik2.10881111113
T. Hnizdil10
WSep 14 · 14:44T. Hnizdil1.4011811113J. Osmera2.80411931WSep 14 · 12:25T. Hnizdil1.401111119113J. Osmera2.7513721192WSep 14 · 10:55O. Knazik2.2548100T. Hnizdil1.571111123WSep 13 · 18:24T. Hnizdil1.1411611113P. Vodal5.00311571WSep 13 · 17:25P. Vodal3.508740T. Hnizdil1.281111113WSep 13 · 16:25T. Hnizdil1.8011119113J. Cousin1.91751151WSep 13 · 14:55J. Dohnal2.20781191T. Hnizdil1.6111117113WSep 11 · 10:30T. Hnizdil1.251211113P. Vodal3.7510870LSep 11 · 08:55V. Koutnik2.501013611123T. Hnizdil1.501211114102WSep 11 · 08:25P. Vodal3.405711111T. Hnizdil1.3011117133
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