TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13127075
Played Sep 14Finished
Jan Osmera
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115711811116112
Simon Holik
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSimon Holik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Osmera above · Simon Holik below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-2
Point 83 set 5, 11-2 — our read held Simon Holik at 54.0%
83 points played in total.
H2H Jan Osmera 6–9 Simon Holik Jan Osmera has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:16What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Holik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-9 in 15
Holik
Wrong
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osmera 1538 vs Holik 1533
Osmera
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osmera 20% vs Holik 60%
Holik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osmera 40% vs Holik 70%
Holik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Osmera -4 · Holik +1
Osmera
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Holik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osmera form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsmera 1.91 / Holik 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Holik)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13127075
Osmera1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog48% won 36 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back42% 16 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Holik1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 29 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOsmera4wins
AwayHolik6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHolik leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsmera57.1%4 of 7
AwayHolik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osmera7Holik3n = 10Osmera took 7 of 10
S2Osmera2Holik8n = 10Holik took 8 of 10
S3Osmera9Holik1n = 10Osmera took 9 of 10
S4Osmera2Holik6n = 8Holik took 6 of 8
S5Osmera1Holik4n = 5Holik took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOsmeraHolikO − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.941.4−0.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsmeraHolikBasisWin rate · lifetime263 / 478 vs 105 / 20255%52%263 / 478 vs 105 / 202Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolikOsmera 1.91/Holik 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Holik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Osmera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 29 · 10:50J. Osmera2857160S. Holik401111183
WApr 27 · 12:20J. Osmera44119112113S. Holik4551191192
LApr 20 · 14:05J. Osmera4611811972S. Holik49811811113
LApr 20 · 10:50J. Osmera51111012992S. Holik506121011113
WApr 13 · 10:35J. Osmera341211113S. Holik2710890
LApr 13 · 09:25J. Osmera497111110102S. Holik49116812123
WMar 30 · 10:50J. Osmera4211911113S. Holik35711891
LMar 23 · 12:50J. Osmera4411611972S. Holik45411811113
LMar 9 · 10:25J. Osmera32371391S. Holik44111111113
WMar 2 · 13:55J. Osmera3911611113S. Holik30811651
J. Osmera10
LSep 10 · 10:04T. Rein2.3811711113J. Osmera1.53711941LSep 10 · 08:55F. Dvorak2.10117911113J. Osmera1.6781111652LSep 10 · 08:25V. Koutnik2.101111113J. Osmera1.676950LSep 10 · 07:25J. Osmera1.33126991T. Rein3.25101111113WSep 8 · 17:55J. Osmera1.7391111113C. Kratochvil2.00116781WSep 8 · 16:55J. Osmera1.53811116113A. Jr2.3811871172WSep 8 · 15:55J. Osmera1.73511411113C. Kratochvil2.0011911992LSep 8 · 14:55J. Osmera1.619114131V. Koutnik2.2011911153LAug 20 · 10:38M. Filipek1.8381114113J. Osmera1.831191291WAug 20 · 08:55J. Osmera1.73871111143P. Vodal2.00111198122
S. Holik10
WSep 2 · 10:09S. Holik1.571011111113T. Rein2.2512115572LSep 2 · 09:25S. Holik1.95511116102B. Budik1.77115811123WSep 2 · 07:55T. Rein2.2561111772S. Holik1.57118811113LSep 2 · 07:25J. Srnka1.6711118113S. Holik2.10951161WAug 30 · 14:02T. Rein2.509111131S. Holik1.5011413113LAug 30 · 12:20T. Rein2.2011911113S. Holik1.61211791WAug 30 · 11:50J. Dohnal1.6711119562S. Holik2.10881111113WAug 30 · 10:50S. Holik1.91111011113P. Vodal1.80812771WAug 29 · 14:34P. Vodal1.7341710101S. Holik2.00111512123WAug 29 · 13:25S. Holik2.5012711113J. Dohnal1.501011851
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