TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13132092
Played Sep 15Finished
Jan Osmera
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811311311––––
Martin Filipek
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:05 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeJan Osmera to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Osmera above · Martin Filipek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 47 set 3, 3-11 — our read held Jan Osmera at 54.3%
47 points played in total.
H2H Jan Osmera 1–3 Martin Filipek Jan Osmera has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 23:05What took a side1 for · 5 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Filipek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Filipek
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osmera 1525 vs Filipek 1482
Osmera
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osmera 40% vs Filipek 80%
Filipek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osmera 30% vs Filipek 70%
Filipek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Osmera -2 · Filipek +4
Filipek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Filipek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Filipek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsmera 2.25 / Filipek 1.57
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Filipek)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13132092
Osmera2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 37 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back41% 16 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Filipek1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite60% won 45 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it81% 34 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeOsmera1wins
AwayFilipek3wins
3 of 4 to a deciderFilipek leads 3–1, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsmera0%0 of 3
AwayFilipekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osmera3Filipek1n = 4Osmera took 3 of 4
S2Osmera1Filipek3n = 4Filipek took 3 of 4
S3Osmera2Filipek2n = 4split evenly
S4Osmera1Filipek3n = 4Filipek took 3 of 4
S5Osmera1Filipek2n = 3Filipek took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricOsmeraFilipekO − FBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match47.249.5−2.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsmeraFilipekBasisWin rate · lifetime257 / 471 vs 264 / 60054.6%44%257 / 471 vs 264 / 600Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OsmeraOsmera 2.25/Filipek 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.1%
Filipek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Filipek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 20 · 10:38J. Osmera411191291M. Filipek4481114113
LAug 14 · 12:55J. Osmera47121111672M. Filipek531081311113
WMar 8 · 12:50J. Osmera535131113113M. Filipek48111571142
LAug 20 · 08:10J. Osmera48155111162M. Filipek531311513113
J. Osmera10
LSep 15 · 12:20J. Osmera1.73711651O. Knazik2.0011911113LSep 15 · 10:20J. Osmera3.00511471T. Hnizdil1.3611811113LSep 14 · 14:44T. Hnizdil1.4011811113J. Osmera2.80411931WSep 14 · 12:55O. Knazik1.835111071J. Osmera1.8311412113LSep 14 · 12:25T. Hnizdil1.401111119113J. Osmera2.7513721192WSep 14 · 11:25J. Osmera1.91117811113S. Holik1.8051111622LSep 10 · 10:04T. Rein2.3811711113J. Osmera1.53711941LSep 10 · 08:55F. Dvorak2.10117911113J. Osmera1.6781111652LSep 10 · 08:25V. Koutnik2.101111113J. Osmera1.676950LSep 10 · 07:25J. Osmera1.33126991T. Rein3.25101111113
M. Filipek10
WSep 15 · 10:50O. Knazik1.57111111642M. Filipek2.25138911113WSep 14 · 10:35M. Filipek1.80148811113A. Kral1.90121111982WSep 14 · 08:55R. Muller1.9175111152M. Filipek1.80111197113WSep 14 · 08:25A. Kral2.00913761M. Filipek1.73111111113LSep 14 · 07:25M. Filipek1.8311851162F. Marat1.83911114113WSep 7 · 10:04R. Muller1.836470M. Filipek1.831111113LSep 7 · 09:25M. Filipek1.831196101F. Balcar1.8361111123LSep 7 · 07:55R. Muller1.91111311113M. Filipek1.80915471WSep 7 · 07:25D. Pasek1.83101211131M. Filipek1.8312146153WSep 5 · 18:35J. Dvorak1.538111011152M. Filipek2.38115129173
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