TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13131126
Played Sep 15Finished
Jan Osmera
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511118411711––
Tomas Hnizdil
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:00 and never touched — 73.9% is still 73.9%
Graded at full timeTomas Hnizdil to win
73.9%
73.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Osmera above · Tomas Hnizdil below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 68 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Tomas Hnizdil at 73.9%
68 points played in total.
H2H Jan Osmera 1–10 Tomas Hnizdil Jan Osmera has won 1 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:00What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Hnizdil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-10 in 11
Hnizdil
Correct
gap of 9 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osmera 1532 vs Hnizdil 1688
Hnizdil
Correct
both rated, 156 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osmera 40% vs Hnizdil 80%
Hnizdil
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osmera 40% vs Hnizdil 80%
Hnizdil
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Osmera -1 · Hnizdil +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Hnizdil) · live re-read · sealed at 74% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsmera 3.00 / Hnizdil 1.36
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Hnizdil)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13131126
Osmera3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 37 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back41% 16 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Hnizdil1.36
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite70% won 53 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it90% 27 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it84% 38 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOsmera1wins
AwayHnizdil9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHnizdil leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsmera25%1 of 4
AwayHnizdil100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osmera4Hnizdil6n = 10Hnizdil took 6 of 10
S2Osmera3Hnizdil7n = 10Hnizdil took 7 of 10
S3Osmera3Hnizdil7n = 10Hnizdil took 7 of 10
S4Osmera1Hnizdil8n = 9Hnizdil took 8 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away770%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOsmeraHnizdilO − HBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.043.2−9.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsmeraHnizdilBasisWin rate · lifetime257 / 470 vs 150 / 24754.7%60.7%257 / 470 vs 150 / 247Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HnizdilOsmera 3.00/Hnizdil 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.2%
Hnizdil · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hnizdil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 14:44J. Osmera27411931T. Hnizdil4111811113
LSep 14 · 12:25J. Osmera4213721192T. Hnizdil531111119113
LJul 15 · 07:55J. Osmera33119941T. Hnizdil4071111113
LMar 2 · 12:55J. Osmera31561281T. Hnizdil43111110113
LJan 27 · 11:50J. Osmera361191061T. Hnizdil4281112113
LAug 23 · 08:50J. Osmera32612771T. Hnizdil43111011113
LAug 22 · 13:35J. Osmera196850T. Hnizdil331111113
LAug 22 · 10:20J. Osmera31511781T. Hnizdil4211911113
LAug 19 · 10:05J. Osmera33691171T. Hnizdil4011117113
WAug 19 · 08:50J. Osmera56118197113T. Hnizdil55711171192
J. Osmera10
LSep 15 · 11:20J. Osmera2.258330M. Filipek1.571111113LSep 14 · 14:44T. Hnizdil1.4011811113J. Osmera2.80411931WSep 14 · 12:55O. Knazik1.835111071J. Osmera1.8311412113LSep 14 · 12:25T. Hnizdil1.401111119113J. Osmera2.7513721192WSep 14 · 11:25J. Osmera1.91117811113S. Holik1.8051111622LSep 10 · 10:04T. Rein2.3811711113J. Osmera1.53711941LSep 10 · 08:55F. Dvorak2.10117911113J. Osmera1.6781111652LSep 10 · 08:25V. Koutnik2.101111113J. Osmera1.676950LSep 10 · 07:25J. Osmera1.33126991T. Rein3.25101111113WSep 8 · 17:55J. Osmera1.7391111113C. Kratochvil2.00116781
T. Hnizdil10
LSep 15 · 11:50T. Hnizdil1.503411111O. Knazik2.5011117133WSep 14 · 14:44T. Hnizdil1.4011811113J. Osmera2.80411931LSep 14 · 13:25S. Holik2.255101111143T. Hnizdil1.57111248122WSep 14 · 12:25T. Hnizdil1.401111119113J. Osmera2.7513721192WSep 14 · 10:55O. Knazik2.2548100T. Hnizdil1.571111123WSep 13 · 18:24T. Hnizdil1.1411611113P. Vodal5.00311571WSep 13 · 17:25P. Vodal3.508740T. Hnizdil1.281111113WSep 13 · 16:25T. Hnizdil1.8011119113J. Cousin1.91751151WSep 13 · 14:55J. Dohnal2.20781191T. Hnizdil1.6111117113WSep 11 · 10:30T. Hnizdil1.251211113P. Vodal3.7510870
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