TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13131828
Played Sep 15Finished
Tomas Hnizdil
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
3114111171113––
Ondrej Knazik
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:35 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeTomas Hnizdil to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Hnizdil above · Ondrej Knazik below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 71 set 4, 11-13 — our read held Tomas Hnizdil at 65.7%
71 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Hnizdil 25–17 Ondrej Knazik Ondrej Knazik has won 17 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:35What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Hnizdil
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-17 in 42
Hnizdil
Wrong
gap of 8 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hnizdil 1695 vs Knazik 1534
Hnizdil
Wrong
both rated, 162 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hnizdil 80% vs Knazik 20%
Hnizdil
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hnizdil 90% vs Knazik 40%
Hnizdil
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hnizdil +2 · Knazik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Hnizdil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Knazik form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHnizdil 1.50 / Knazik 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Hnizdil)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13131828
Hnizdil1.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite70% won 53 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it90% 27 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it84% 38 of 45
Knazik2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 64 of 165
Down 0–1, comes back20% 19 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHnizdil6wins
AwayKnazik4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderHnizdil leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHnizdil100%4 of 4
AwayKnazik66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hnizdil4Knazik6n = 10Knazik took 6 of 10
S2Hnizdil4Knazik6n = 10Knazik took 6 of 10
S3Hnizdil8Knazik2n = 10Hnizdil took 8 of 10
S4Hnizdil4Knazik4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHnizdilKnazikH − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.435.6+0.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHnizdilKnazikBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 244 vs 449 / 87460.7%51.4%148 / 244 vs 449 / 874Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HnizdilHnizdil 1.50/Knazik 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Hnizdil · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Knazik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 10:55T. Hnizdil341111123O. Knazik2248100
WSep 3 · 13:25T. Hnizdil4411118143O. Knazik389611121
WAug 11 · 10:20T. Hnizdil3521111113O. Knazik37118991
WJul 27 · 13:55T. Hnizdil4011711113O. Knazik33711961
LJul 27 · 11:20T. Hnizdil4010101191O. Knazik4112126113
WJul 18 · 13:55T. Hnizdil49911117113O. Knazik3711471142
LJul 18 · 13:25T. Hnizdil2341090O. Knazik341112113
LMar 15 · 13:50T. Hnizdil27751141O. Knazik4011117113
WFeb 28 · 11:55T. Hnizdil4011711113O. Knazik30711481
LFeb 23 · 14:25T. Hnizdil32661371O. Knazik44111111113
T. Hnizdil10
WSep 15 · 10:20J. Osmera3.00511471T. Hnizdil1.3611811113WSep 14 · 14:44T. Hnizdil1.4011811113J. Osmera2.80411931LSep 14 · 13:25S. Holik2.255101111143T. Hnizdil1.57111248122WSep 14 · 12:25T. Hnizdil1.401111119113J. Osmera2.7513721192WSep 14 · 10:55O. Knazik2.2548100T. Hnizdil1.571111123WSep 13 · 18:24T. Hnizdil1.1411611113P. Vodal5.00311571WSep 13 · 17:25P. Vodal3.508740T. Hnizdil1.281111113WSep 13 · 16:25T. Hnizdil1.8011119113J. Cousin1.91751151WSep 13 · 14:55J. Dohnal2.20781191T. Hnizdil1.6111117113WSep 11 · 10:30T. Hnizdil1.251211113P. Vodal3.7510870
O. Knazik10
WSep 15 · 12:20J. Osmera1.73711651O. Knazik2.0011911113LSep 15 · 10:50O. Knazik1.57111111642M. Filipek2.25138911113WSep 14 · 14:13S. Holik1.8351191162O. Knazik1.83119118113LSep 14 · 12:55O. Knazik1.835111071J. Osmera1.8311412113LSep 14 · 11:55O. Knazik1.67117691S. Holik2.1051111113LSep 14 · 10:55O. Knazik2.2548100T. Hnizdil1.571111123WSep 3 · 14:39V. Koutnik2.25441161O. Knazik1.5711119113LSep 3 · 13:25T. Hnizdil1.5711118143O. Knazik2.259611121WSep 3 · 12:25O. Knazik1.401111113T. Rein2.753540WSep 3 · 10:55V. Koutnik2.20118971O. Knazik1.6161111113
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