TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13137049
Played Sep 16Finished
Frantisek Balcar
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1416114115311116
Martin Filipek
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFrantisek Balcar to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Balcar above · Martin Filipek below
Set 1 · 14-16
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 92 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Frantisek Balcar at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Balcar 19–14 Martin Filipek Martin Filipek has won 14 of their 33 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:27What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Filipek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-14 in 33
Balcar
Correct
gap of 5 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Balcar 1535 vs Filipek 1538
Filipek
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Balcar 80% vs Filipek 100%
Filipek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Balcar 70% vs Filipek 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Balcar +2 · Filipek +5
Filipek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Filipek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Filipek form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBalcar 1.91 / Filipek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Filipek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13137049
Balcar1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 39 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back19% 7 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Filipek1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite61% won 46 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it100% 17 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it81% 35 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBalcar5wins
AwayFilipek5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBalcarn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayFilipek62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Balcar2Filipek8n = 10Filipek took 8 of 10
S2Balcar5Filipek5n = 10split evenly
S3Balcar6Filipek4n = 10Balcar took 6 of 10
S4Balcar2Filipek5n = 7Filipek took 5 of 7
S5Balcar4Filipek2n = 6Balcar took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricBalcarFilipekB − FBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match42.943.4−0.5per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBalcarFilipekBasisWin rate · lifetime113 / 235 vs 268 / 60448.1%44.4%113 / 235 vs 268 / 604Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FilipekBalcar 1.91/Filipek 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Filipek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Balcar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 09:25F. Balcar4061111123M. Filipek361196101
WSep 4 · 11:25F. Balcar501161111113M. Filipek4141161372
LJul 20 · 11:25F. Balcar268990M. Filipek331111113
WJul 20 · 06:55F. Balcar49711128113M. Filipek47118101172
LJul 17 · 06:55F. Balcar5388111792M. Filipek531111515113
WJul 16 · 13:20F. Balcar58111998113M. Filipek56917111182
LJul 16 · 12:20F. Balcar2969140M. Filipek381111163
WJul 7 · 20:55F. Balcar531011129113M. Filipek44128101132
LJun 17 · 13:54F. Balcar50911111182M. Filipek53119913113
LJun 17 · 12:55F. Balcar219840M. Filipek331111113
F. Balcar10
WSep 16 · 11:20F. Balcar2.00481111113T. Hnizdil1.7311113972WSep 7 · 10:33D. Pasek2.6381171162F. Balcar1.44113117113WSep 7 · 09:25M. Filipek1.831196101F. Balcar1.8361111123LSep 7 · 08:25F. Balcar1.579750D. Pasek2.251111113WSep 7 · 06:55R. Muller1.918121111142F. Balcar1.801110139163WSep 4 · 14:35F. Balcar2.25511117113A. Kral1.5711961152LSep 4 · 13:25F. Balcar2.50210111172A. Kral1.50111294113WSep 4 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.8391070F. Balcar1.831112113WSep 4 · 11:25M. Filipek1.8041161372F. Balcar1.911161111113WSep 1 · 17:25F. Balcar1.571111113R. Jamrich2.258770
M. Filipek10
WSep 15 · 13:54M. Filipek2.20811711113O. Knazik1.6111711972WSep 15 · 12:50M. Filipek2.2513127113T. Hnizdil1.5711101181WSep 15 · 11:20J. Osmera2.258330M. Filipek1.571111113WSep 15 · 10:50O. Knazik1.57111111642M. Filipek2.25138911113WSep 14 · 10:35M. Filipek1.80148811113A. Kral1.90121111982WSep 14 · 08:55R. Muller1.9175111152M. Filipek1.80111197113WSep 14 · 08:25A. Kral2.00913761M. Filipek1.73111111113LSep 14 · 07:25M. Filipek1.8311851162F. Marat1.83911114113LSep 7 · 09:25M. Filipek1.831196101F. Balcar1.8361111123LSep 4 · 11:25M. Filipek1.8041161372F. Balcar1.911161111113
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