TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13137428
Played Sep 16Finished
Frantisek Balcar
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
411811113119117
Tomas Hnizdil
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Hnizdil to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFrantisek Balcar above · Tomas Hnizdil below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 86 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Tomas Hnizdil at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Balcar 5–4 Tomas Hnizdil Tomas Hnizdil has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:49What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hnizdil
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Balcar 1546 vs Hnizdil 1667
Hnizdil
Wrong
both rated, 121 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Balcar 80% vs Hnizdil 60%
Balcar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Balcar 80% vs Hnizdil 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Balcar +3 · Hnizdil +2
Balcar
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hnizdil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Balcar form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBalcar 2.00 / Hnizdil 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Hnizdil)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13137428
Balcar2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 39 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back19% 7 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Hnizdil1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite69% won 55 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it90% 27 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it85% 39 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeBalcar5wins
AwayHnizdil4wins
3 of 9 to a deciderBalcar leads 5–4, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBalcar100%5 of 5
AwayHnizdil100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Balcar5Hnizdil4n = 9Balcar took 5 of 9
S2Balcar3Hnizdil6n = 9Hnizdil took 6 of 9
S3Balcar4Hnizdil5n = 9Hnizdil took 5 of 9
S4Balcar4Hnizdil1n = 5Balcar took 4 of 5
S5Balcar2Hnizdil1n = 3Balcar took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricBalcarHnizdilB − HBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match35.639.9−4.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBalcarHnizdilBasisWin rate · lifetime113 / 232 vs 147 / 24448.7%60.3%113 / 232 vs 147 / 244Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HnizdilBalcar 2.00/Hnizdil 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hnizdil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Balcar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WApr 5 · 14:30F. Balcar4115113123T. Hnizdil4213811101
WApr 5 · 13:25F. Balcar361114113T. Hnizdil2981290
LFeb 23 · 15:00F. Balcar3012111152T. Hnizdil50111198113
WFeb 23 · 12:25F. Balcar50118811123T. Hnizdil49911118102
LAug 21 · 07:50F. Balcar157530T. Hnizdil331111113
WAug 18 · 13:50F. Balcar45123811113T. Hnizdil46101111862
LAug 18 · 10:40F. Balcar2777130T. Hnizdil371111153
LAug 11 · 06:50F. Balcar35691191T. Hnizdil4011117113
WJul 13 · 11:50F. Balcar411111193T. Hnizdil3388170
F. Balcar10
WSep 16 · 12:20F. Balcar1.8011118113B. Budik1.90781181WSep 16 · 10:20F. Balcar1.911411113113M. Filipek1.8016451162WSep 7 · 10:33D. Pasek2.6381171162F. Balcar1.44113117113WSep 7 · 09:25M. Filipek1.831196101F. Balcar1.8361111123LSep 7 · 08:25F. Balcar1.579750D. Pasek2.251111113WSep 7 · 06:55R. Muller1.918121111142F. Balcar1.801110139163WSep 4 · 14:35F. Balcar2.25511117113A. Kral1.5711961152LSep 4 · 13:25F. Balcar2.50210111172A. Kral1.50111294113WSep 4 · 11:55P. Chlumsky1.8391070F. Balcar1.831112113WSep 4 · 11:25M. Filipek1.8041161372F. Balcar1.911161111113
T. Hnizdil10
WSep 16 · 10:50B. Budik2.20127101152T. Hnizdil1.601011128113WSep 15 · 13:24T. Hnizdil1.3641112123J. Osmera3.0011810101LSep 15 · 12:50M. Filipek2.2513127113T. Hnizdil1.5711101181LSep 15 · 11:50T. Hnizdil1.503411111O. Knazik2.5011117133WSep 15 · 10:20J. Osmera3.00511471T. Hnizdil1.3611811113WSep 14 · 14:44T. Hnizdil1.4011811113J. Osmera2.80411931LSep 14 · 13:25S. Holik2.255101111143T. Hnizdil1.57111248122WSep 14 · 12:25T. Hnizdil1.401111119113J. Osmera2.7513721192WSep 14 · 10:55O. Knazik2.2548100T. Hnizdil1.571111123WSep 13 · 18:24T. Hnizdil1.1411611113P. Vodal5.00311571
Upcoming Matches
F. Balcar
Nothing scheduled
T. Hnizdil
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