TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13143541
Played Sep 17Finished
Martin Filipek
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11131194111210116
Ladislav Moravec
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLadislav Moravec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Filipek above · Ladislav Moravec below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 98 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Ladislav Moravec at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Martin Filipek 14–10 Ladislav Moravec Ladislav Moravec has won 10 of their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:13What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Filipek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-10 in 24
Filipek
Correct
gap of 4 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Filipek 1529 vs Moravec 1549
Moravec
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Filipek 40% vs Moravec 20%
Filipek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Filipek 70% vs Moravec 50%
Filipek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Filipek +1 · Moravec -3
Moravec
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Filipek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravec form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFilipek 1.80 / Moravec 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Filipek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13143541
Filipek1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 47 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it100% 17 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it80% 35 of 44
Moravec1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 30 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back18% 7 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFilipek5wins
AwayMoravec5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFilipek66.7%4 of 6
AwayMoravec75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Filipek6Moravec4n = 10Filipek took 6 of 10
S2Filipek4Moravec6n = 10Moravec took 6 of 10
S3Filipek5Moravec5n = 10split evenly
S4Filipek3Moravec3n = 6split evenly
S5Filipek2Moravec2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricFilipekMoravecF − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.836.0+1.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFilipekMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime268 / 604 vs 114 / 26744.4%42.7%268 / 604 vs 114 / 267Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FilipekFilipek 1.80/Moravec 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Filipek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Filipek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 19 · 10:55M. Filipek3811571142L. Moravec45611116113
LAug 12 · 11:25M. Filipek2658130L. Moravec371111153
LAug 11 · 14:20M. Filipek4411961172L. Moravec44511116113
WAug 4 · 12:55M. Filipek4211911113L. Moravec28811271
WJul 9 · 18:05M. Filipek331111113L. Moravec194780
WJul 9 · 16:55M. Filipek51911119113L. Moravec4611961192
LJun 30 · 13:25M. Filipek2610790L. Moravec341211113
LJun 16 · 14:38M. Filipek345101181L. Moravec4211128113
WJun 16 · 10:55M. Filipek331111113L. Moravec218760
WJun 2 · 13:58M. Filipek51111199113L. Moravec4487111172
M. Filipek10
WSep 17 · 12:55M. Filipek1.731111143A. Kral2.0096120WSep 17 · 10:55M. Filipek2.00118119133F. Marat1.73711511112LSep 16 · 13:30M. Filipek3.0051141192B. Budik1.35117119113LSep 16 · 12:50T. Hnizdil1.67111014113M. Filipek2.102121251WSep 16 · 11:50M. Filipek1.80911411113B. Budik1.9011711492LSep 16 · 10:20F. Balcar1.911411113113M. Filipek1.8016451162WSep 15 · 13:54M. Filipek2.20811711113O. Knazik1.6111711972WSep 15 · 12:50M. Filipek2.2513127113T. Hnizdil1.5711101181WSep 15 · 11:20J. Osmera2.258330M. Filipek1.571111113WSep 15 · 10:50O. Knazik1.57111111642M. Filipek2.25138911113
L. Moravec10
LSep 17 · 11:25A. Kral1.5311713113L. Moravec2.384111181LSep 11 · 17:55L. Moravec1.3097130D. Sochor3.401111153LSep 11 · 16:55M. Dvorak1.57491111113L. Moravec2.2511114752WSep 11 · 16:25D. Sochor1.675680L. Moravec2.101111113LSep 11 · 15:25L. Moravec2.201011781A. Kral1.6112511113WSep 10 · 18:00J. Hendrych1.65111161252L. Moravec2.10661114113WSep 10 · 16:20L. Moravec2.001211113M. Dolezal1.7310860LSep 10 · 15:20L. Moravec2.25511281J. Hendrych1.5711211113WSep 10 · 14:20L. Moravec1.8311119113Z. Zahradka1.83731161WSep 9 · 13:58P. Chlumsky1.83121191182L. Moravec1.83148115113
Upcoming Matches
M. Filipek
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L. Moravec
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