TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13143390
Played Sep 17Finished
Adam Kral
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1147111311118––
Ladislav Moravec
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:22 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeAdam Kral to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Kral above · Ladislav Moravec below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 76 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Adam Kral at 60.5%
76 points played in total.
H2H Adam Kral 10–2 Ladislav Moravec Ladislav Moravec has won 2 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:22What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kral
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-2 in 12
Kral
Correct
gap of 8 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kral 1481 vs Moravec 1564
Moravec
Wrong
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kral 20% vs Moravec 40%
Moravec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kral 50% vs Moravec 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kral +1 · Moravec -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Kral) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kral form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKral 1.53 / Moravec 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Kral)+3.5pp
TT Cup · #13143390
Kral1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 48 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it72% 33 of 46
Moravec2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 30 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back18% 7 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKral8wins
AwayMoravec2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKral leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKral85.7%6 of 7
AwayMoravec33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kral7Moravec3n = 10Kral took 7 of 10
S2Kral6Moravec4n = 10Kral took 6 of 10
S3Kral7Moravec3n = 10Kral took 7 of 10
S4Kral7Moravec1n = 8Kral took 7 of 8
S5Kral1Moravec2n = 3Moravec took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKralMoravecK − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.338.4+4.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKralMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime407 / 780 vs 114 / 26652.2%42.9%407 / 780 vs 114 / 266Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.637.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KralKral 1.53/Moravec 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.3%
Kral · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kral won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 15:25A. Kral3912511113L. Moravec361011781
WSep 9 · 11:25A. Kral52121712113L. Moravec4810151491
WSep 1 · 17:55A. Kral5310111011113L. Moravec4412812392
LSep 1 · 15:50A. Kral49117118122L. Moravec51611911143
WAug 4 · 16:00A. Kral4111613113L. Moravec376111191
WAug 4 · 13:59A. Kral4111613113L. Moravec376111191
WAug 4 · 11:55A. Kral341111123L. Moravec2688100
WJul 9 · 16:25A. Kral4071111113L. Moravec30112891
WJun 5 · 13:23A. Kral361411113L. Moravec2812790
LJun 5 · 12:20A. Kral4891191182L. Moravec47119115113
A. Kral10
LSep 17 · 12:55M. Filipek1.731111143A. Kral2.0096120LSep 17 · 12:25F. Marat1.83128145123A. Kral1.8310111211102WSep 15 · 13:55P. Moravec1.5011871192A. Kral2.50811117113LSep 15 · 13:25A. Kral2.10611881P. Moravec1.6711511113LSep 15 · 11:55D. Sochor2.50115711113A. Kral1.5091111892LSep 15 · 11:25P. Chlumsky1.83121212113A. Kral1.8310101471LSep 14 · 10:35M. Filipek1.80148811113A. Kral1.90121111982WSep 14 · 09:25F. Marat2.009111101A. Kral1.7311911123LSep 14 · 08:25A. Kral2.00913761M. Filipek1.73111111113WSep 14 · 06:55R. Muller1.838490A. Kral1.831111113
L. Moravec10
LSep 17 · 11:55M. Filipek1.801111412113L. Moravec1.91139111062LSep 11 · 17:55L. Moravec1.3097130D. Sochor3.401111153LSep 11 · 16:55M. Dvorak1.57491111113L. Moravec2.2511114752WSep 11 · 16:25D. Sochor1.675680L. Moravec2.101111113LSep 11 · 15:25L. Moravec2.201011781A. Kral1.6112511113WSep 10 · 18:00J. Hendrych1.65111161252L. Moravec2.10661114113WSep 10 · 16:20L. Moravec2.001211113M. Dolezal1.7310860LSep 10 · 15:20L. Moravec2.25511281J. Hendrych1.5711211113WSep 10 · 14:20L. Moravec1.8311119113Z. Zahradka1.83731161WSep 9 · 13:58P. Chlumsky1.83121191182L. Moravec1.83148115113
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