TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13131994
Played Sep 15Finished
Adam Kral
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611115811811––
Petr Moravec
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Moravec to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Kral above · Petr Moravec below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 71 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Petr Moravec at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Adam Kral 2–1 Petr Moravec Petr Moravec has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:43What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Moravec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kral 1477 vs Moravec 1548
Moravec
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kral 20% vs Moravec 60%
Moravec
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kral 50% vs Moravec 70%
Moravec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kral -3 · Moravec +1
Kral
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Moravec) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kral form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKral 2.10 / Moravec 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Moravec)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13131994
Kral2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 87 of 202
Down 0–1, comes back26% 26 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 54
Moravec1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 42 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it78% 29 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKral2wins
AwayMoravec1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderKral leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kral2Moravec1n = 3Kral took 2 of 3
S2Kral1Moravec2n = 3Moravec took 2 of 3
S3Kral3Moravec0n = 3Kral took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricKralMoravecK − MBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match41.739.0+2.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKralMoravecBasisWin rate · lifetime406 / 778 vs 108 / 20852.2%51.9%406 / 778 vs 108 / 208Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecKral 2.10/Moravec 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Moravec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJul 30 · 08:25A. Kral3768111112P. Moravec48111178113
WJul 13 · 07:25A. Kral52119119123P. Moravec49811911102
WJul 2 · 15:20A. Kral361411113P. Moravec2012440
A. Kral10
WSep 15 · 13:55P. Moravec1.5011871192A. Kral2.50811117113LSep 15 · 11:55D. Sochor2.50115711113A. Kral1.5091111892LSep 15 · 11:25P. Chlumsky1.83121212113A. Kral1.8310101471LSep 14 · 10:35M. Filipek1.80148811113A. Kral1.90121111982WSep 14 · 09:25F. Marat2.009111101A. Kral1.7311911123LSep 14 · 08:25A. Kral2.00913761M. Filipek1.73111111113WSep 14 · 06:55R. Muller1.838490A. Kral1.831111113WSep 11 · 18:25M. Dvorak1.78311961A. Kral1.9211911113WSep 11 · 17:25A. Kral1.801111133D. Sochor1.9178110LSep 11 · 15:55M. Dvorak2.201110138113A. Kral1.61512111152
P. Moravec10
LSep 15 · 13:55P. Moravec1.5011871192A. Kral2.50811117113WSep 15 · 12:25P. Moravec1.57116124113P. Chlumsky2.25711101132LSep 15 · 10:55D. Sochor3.001111113P. Moravec1.367690WSep 8 · 17:55J. Hendrych1.95811981P. Moravec1.7511911113LSep 8 · 16:50P. Moravec1.83871131J. Hendrych1.8311117113WSep 8 · 15:20Z. Zahradka2.7510580P. Moravec1.401211113WSep 8 · 14:50J. Dvorak3.001211941P. Moravec1.3614411113WSep 3 · 18:23J. Hrncir1.9011691372P. Moravec1.806111111113WSep 3 · 16:55M. Beran1.73811931P. Moravec2.0011611113LSep 3 · 16:25J. Hrncir1.911011118163P. Moravec1.80126511142
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