TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13135366
Played Sep 15Finished
Petr Moravec
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118811711117911
Adam Kral
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
How it is goingPetr Moravec above · Adam Kral below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 94 set 5, 9-11
94 points played in total.
H2H Petr Moravec 2–2 Adam Kral Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Moravec beat Kral 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Moravec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kral form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravec 1.50 / Kral 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 38%
Edge (Moravec)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13135366
Moravec1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 42 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it78% 29 of 37
Kral2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 87 of 202
Down 0–1, comes back26% 26 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMoravec2wins
AwayKral2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravec2Kral2n = 4split evenly
S2Moravec2Kral2n = 4split evenly
S3Moravec1Kral3n = 4Kral took 3 of 4
S4Moravec2Kral1n = 3Moravec took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricMoravecKralM − KBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match38.839.5−0.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravecKralBasisWin rate · lifetime109 / 209 vs 406 / 77952.2%52.1%109 / 209 vs 406 / 779Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.540.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravecMoravec 1.50/Kral 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.5%
Moravec · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kral won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 15 · 13:25P. Moravec3811511113A. Kral33611881
WJul 30 · 08:25P. Moravec48111178113A. Kral3768111112
LJul 13 · 07:25P. Moravec49811911102A. Kral52119119123
LJul 2 · 15:20P. Moravec2012440A. Kral361411113
P. Moravec10
WSep 15 · 13:25A. Kral2.10611881P. Moravec1.6711511113WSep 15 · 12:25P. Moravec1.57116124113P. Chlumsky2.25711101132LSep 15 · 10:55D. Sochor3.001111113P. Moravec1.367690WSep 8 · 17:55J. Hendrych1.95811981P. Moravec1.7511911113LSep 8 · 16:50P. Moravec1.83871131J. Hendrych1.8311117113WSep 8 · 15:20Z. Zahradka2.7510580P. Moravec1.401211113WSep 8 · 14:50J. Dvorak3.001211941P. Moravec1.3614411113WSep 3 · 18:23J. Hrncir1.9011691372P. Moravec1.806111111113WSep 3 · 16:55M. Beran1.73811931P. Moravec2.0011611113LSep 3 · 16:25J. Hrncir1.911011118163P. Moravec1.80126511142
A. Kral10
LSep 15 · 13:25A. Kral2.10611881P. Moravec1.6711511113LSep 15 · 11:55D. Sochor2.50115711113A. Kral1.5091111892LSep 15 · 11:25P. Chlumsky1.83121212113A. Kral1.8310101471LSep 14 · 10:35M. Filipek1.80148811113A. Kral1.90121111982WSep 14 · 09:25F. Marat2.009111101A. Kral1.7311911123LSep 14 · 08:25A. Kral2.00913761M. Filipek1.73111111113WSep 14 · 06:55R. Muller1.838490A. Kral1.831111113WSep 11 · 18:25M. Dvorak1.78311961A. Kral1.9211911113WSep 11 · 17:25A. Kral1.801111133D. Sochor1.9178110LSep 11 · 15:55M. Dvorak2.201110138113A. Kral1.61512111152
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