TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13143523
Played Sep 17Finished
Martin Filipek
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191161412––––
Adam Kral
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Filipek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Filipek above · Adam Kral below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 14-12
Point 63 set 3, 14-12 — our read held Martin Filipek at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Martin Filipek 45–38 Adam Kral Adam Kral has won 38 of their 83 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 23:13What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Filipek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-38 in 83
Filipek
Correct
gap of 7 in 83, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Filipek 1551 vs Kral 1495
Filipek
Correct
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Filipek 60% vs Kral 40%
Filipek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Filipek 70% vs Kral 50%
Filipek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Filipek +2 · Kral +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Filipek)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFilipek 1.73 / Kral 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Filipek)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13143523
Filipek1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 47 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it100% 17 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it80% 35 of 44
Kral2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 88 of 200
Down 0–1, comes back26% 27 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFilipek9wins
AwayKral1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderFilipek leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFilipek100%7 of 7
AwayKral33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Filipek7Kral3n = 10Filipek took 7 of 10
S2Filipek5Kral5n = 10split evenly
S3Filipek9Kral1n = 10Filipek took 9 of 10
S4Filipek6Kral1n = 7Filipek took 6 of 7
S5Filipek2Kral1n = 3Filipek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFilipekKralF − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.737.3+5.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFilipekKralBasisWin rate · lifetime268 / 604 vs 408 / 78144.4%52.2%268 / 604 vs 408 / 781Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.640.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FilipekFilipek 1.73/Kral 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Filipek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Filipek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 10:35M. Filipek52148811113A. Kral51121111982
WSep 14 · 08:25M. Filipek44111111113A. Kral35913761
LSep 4 · 12:25M. Filipek5448171962A. Kral6511111517113
WSep 3 · 21:58M. Filipek4211911113A. Kral36811891
WSep 3 · 19:50M. Filipek50129117113A. Kral48101171192
WAug 15 · 08:25M. Filipek3951111123A. Kral331148101
WAug 5 · 07:55M. Filipek341111123A. Kral2156100
WAug 4 · 11:25M. Filipek331111113A. Kral235990
WJul 31 · 09:53M. Filipek45111211113A. Kral381310871
WJul 31 · 07:25M. Filipek341111123A. Kral2367100
M. Filipek10
WSep 17 · 11:55M. Filipek1.801111412113L. Moravec1.91139111062WSep 17 · 10:55M. Filipek2.00118119133F. Marat1.73711511112LSep 16 · 13:30M. Filipek3.0051141192B. Budik1.35117119113LSep 16 · 12:50T. Hnizdil1.67111014113M. Filipek2.102121251WSep 16 · 11:50M. Filipek1.80911411113B. Budik1.9011711492LSep 16 · 10:20F. Balcar1.911411113113M. Filipek1.8016451162WSep 15 · 13:54M. Filipek2.20811711113O. Knazik1.6111711972WSep 15 · 12:50M. Filipek2.2513127113T. Hnizdil1.5711101181WSep 15 · 11:20J. Osmera2.258330M. Filipek1.571111113WSep 15 · 10:50O. Knazik1.57111111642M. Filipek2.25138911113
A. Kral10
LSep 17 · 12:25F. Marat1.83128145123A. Kral1.8310111211102WSep 17 · 11:25A. Kral1.5311713113L. Moravec2.384111181WSep 15 · 13:55P. Moravec1.5011871192A. Kral2.50811117113LSep 15 · 13:25A. Kral2.10611881P. Moravec1.6711511113LSep 15 · 11:55D. Sochor2.50115711113A. Kral1.5091111892LSep 15 · 11:25P. Chlumsky1.83121212113A. Kral1.8310101471LSep 14 · 10:35M. Filipek1.80148811113A. Kral1.90121111982WSep 14 · 09:25F. Marat2.009111101A. Kral1.7311911123LSep 14 · 08:25A. Kral2.00913761M. Filipek1.73111111113WSep 14 · 06:55R. Muller1.838490A. Kral1.831111113
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