TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13128628
Played Sep 14Finished
Filip Marat
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411711811––––
Radek Muller
Away
1.65
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:00 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeFilip Marat to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFilip Marat above · Radek Muller below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 52 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Filip Marat at 55.5%
52 points played in total.
H2H Filip Marat 5–10 Radek Muller Filip Marat has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Marat beat Muller 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:00What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Muller
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-10 in 15
Muller
Correct
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marat 1455 vs Muller 1417
Marat
Wrong
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marat 40% vs Muller 0%
Marat
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marat 60% vs Muller 20%
Marat
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marat -1 · Muller -5
Muller
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Muller) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Muller form (0%) is below what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarat 2.10 / Muller 1.65
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Muller)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13128628
Marat2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 44 of 105
Down 0–1, comes back40% 25 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back23% 7 of 31
Muller1.65
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite50% won 33 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it86% 18 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it71% 25 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarat3wins
AwayMuller7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMuller leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarat50%2 of 4
AwayMuller83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marat4Muller6n = 10Muller took 6 of 10
S2Marat5Muller5n = 10split evenly
S3Marat2Muller8n = 10Muller took 8 of 10
S4Marat3Muller5n = 8Muller took 5 of 8
S5Marat2Muller2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaratMullerMarat − MullerBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.940.5−3.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaratMullerBasisWin rate · lifetime236 / 530 vs 165 / 33244.5%49.7%236 / 530 vs 165 / 332Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MullerMarat 2.10/Muller 1.65
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.2%
Muller · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Muller won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 10:05F. Marat194780R. Muller331111113
WSep 14 · 07:55F. Marat45111292113R. Muller46810111162
LJul 27 · 12:25F. Marat361178101R. Muller4391111123
LJul 17 · 07:25F. Marat239860R. Muller331111113
WApr 20 · 11:25F. Marat42111136113R. Muller3848111142
WApr 13 · 16:20F. Marat4071111113R. Muller28114941
LMar 2 · 22:55F. Marat32811581R. Muller4011711113
LMar 2 · 21:25F. Marat49811131162R. Muller48117154113
LFeb 18 · 09:25F. Marat49147611112R. Muller541211117133
LDec 16 · 08:55F. Marat34951191R. Muller4211119113
F. Marat10
LSep 14 · 09:25F. Marat2.009111101A. Kral1.7311911123WSep 14 · 07:55R. Muller1.61810111162F. Marat2.20111292113WSep 14 · 07:25M. Filipek1.8311851162F. Marat1.83911114113LAug 19 · 14:35L. Moravec1.441111123F. Marat2.6388100LAug 19 · 13:25F. Marat2.501161081L. Moravec1.5081112113WAug 19 · 11:55M. Filipek2.101411111032F. Marat1.671281312113WAug 19 · 11:25R. Jamrich1.83111581182F. Marat1.831313117113LJul 31 · 10:24F. Marat1.901110141172M. Tlusty1.80512167113WJul 31 · 09:25M. Filipek2.209540F. Marat1.611111113WJul 31 · 08:25F. Marat1.9111117113A. Kral1.80581131
R. Muller10
LSep 14 · 08:55R. Muller1.9175111152M. Filipek1.80111197113LSep 14 · 07:55R. Muller1.61810111162F. Marat2.20111292113LSep 14 · 06:55R. Muller1.838490A. Kral1.831111113LSep 8 · 10:25R. Jamrich1.8011811173R. Muller1.919118151LSep 8 · 09:25R. Jamrich1.9111118113R. Muller1.80741191WSep 8 · 08:25R. Muller1.611111113P. Chlumsky2.208530LSep 8 · 06:55J. Srnka1.8071111143R. Muller1.911194121LSep 7 · 10:04R. Muller1.836470M. Filipek1.831111113LSep 7 · 08:55R. Muller1.91111111472D. Pasek1.80139911113WSep 7 · 07:55R. Muller1.91111311113M. Filipek1.80915471
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