TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142219
Played Sep 17Finished
Roman Merkl
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11810121181210––
Vladimir Lopata
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:52 and never touched — 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeVladimir Lopata to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRoman Merkl above · Vladimir Lopata below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 82 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Vladimir Lopata at 63.2%
82 points played in total.
H2H Roman Merkl 2–5 Vladimir Lopata Roman Merkl has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:52What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Lopata
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Lopata
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merkl 1553 vs Lopata 1647
Lopata
Wrong
both rated, 94 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merkl 40% vs Lopata 80%
Lopata
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merkl 40% vs Lopata 60%
Lopata
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Merkl -1 · Lopata +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Lopata)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lopata form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerkl 2.38 / Lopata 1.53
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Lopata)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13142219
Merkl2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 86 of 175
Down 0–1, comes back39% 40 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back17% 8 of 46
Lopata1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite49% won 26 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it80% 8 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it73% 19 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMerkl2wins
AwayLopata5wins
4 of 7 to a deciderLopata leads 5–2, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerkln = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayLopata80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merkl2Lopata5n = 7Lopata took 5 of 7
S2Merkl1Lopata6n = 7Lopata took 6 of 7
S3Merkl3Lopata4n = 7Lopata took 4 of 7
S4Merkl3Lopata2n = 5Merkl took 3 of 5
S5Merkl2Lopata2n = 4split evenly
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricMerklLopataM − LBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match37.642.7−5.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerklLopataBasisWin rate · lifetime275 / 563 vs 140 / 27048.9%51.9%275 / 563 vs 140 / 270Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.739.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LopataMerkl 2.38/Lopata 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.2%
Lopata · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Merkl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WJul 25 · 10:00R. Merkl511161112113V. Lopata4541181482
LJan 3 · 19:30R. Merkl209470V. Lopata331111113
LDec 21 · 22:00R. Merkl4714871172V. Lopata521211117113
WDec 21 · 21:00R. Merkl50712911113V. Lopata44111011572
LSep 10 · 12:27R. Merkl26451161V. Lopata4011117113
LSep 10 · 09:15R. Merkl4294111172V. Lopata50111189113
LMar 25 · 10:45R. Merkl2771190V. Lopata351113113
R. Merkl10
WSep 17 · 14:45R. Merkl2.20761111153P. Hala1.61111198132LSep 14 · 21:08P. Rucky1.5361111123R. Merkl2.381174101WSep 14 · 19:30S. Kalensky1.83611591R. Merkl1.8311811113LSep 14 · 19:00R. Merkl2.2585111192P. Rucky1.57111149113WSep 14 · 18:00R. Merkl2.001112123J. Jnr1.73610100LSep 13 · 08:35L. Kolman1.8351111113R. Merkl1.83114991LSep 13 · 07:30L. Provaznik1.401115113R. Merkl2.7541380WSep 13 · 07:00R. Merkl2.20117118113L. Kolman1.6141191182WSep 13 · 06:00R. Merkl2.25121174113P. Hala1.57105111172LSep 8 · 20:14J. Juppa1.80114911113R. Merkl1.9181111882
V. Lopata10
WSep 17 · 14:15P. Provaznik1.738111091V. Lopata2.0011912113WSep 12 · 16:46V. Lopata2.201112123V. Herrmann1.60610100WSep 12 · 15:45L. Stoces1.837570V. Lopata1.831111113LSep 12 · 14:45V. Herrmann1.83911511113V. Lopata1.8311311882WSep 11 · 16:34V. Lopata1.80115119113A. Pavlik1.9171191192WSep 11 · 16:00P. Hala2.2511551152V. Lopata1.57911118113LSep 11 · 15:00O. Horak1.801111113V. Lopata1.917420LSep 11 · 13:30A. Pavlik2.201211113V. Lopata1.6110750WSep 5 · 12:19V. Lopata1.67101111113P. Maly2.10126851WSep 5 · 11:45V. Lopata2.0012911113L. Kolman1.731011741
Upcoming Matches
R. Merkl
Nothing scheduled
V. Lopata
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