TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116724
Played Sep 12Finished
Vit Herrmann
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911113511118118
Vladimir Lopata
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVit Herrmann to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVit Herrmann above · Vladimir Lopata below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 88 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Vit Herrmann at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Vit Herrmann 3–2 Vladimir Lopata Vladimir Lopata has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:33What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Lopata
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Herrmann 1617 vs Lopata 1591
Herrmann
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Herrmann 40% vs Lopata 60%
Lopata
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Herrmann 40% vs Lopata 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Herrmann +1 · Lopata +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Herrmann)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Herrmann form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHerrmann 1.83 / Lopata 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Herrmann)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13116724
Herrmann1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Lopata1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeHerrmann3wins
AwayLopata2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderHerrmann leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHerrmannn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayLopata66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Herrmann2Lopata3n = 5Lopata took 3 of 5
S2Herrmann2Lopata3n = 5Lopata took 3 of 5
S3Herrmann4Lopata1n = 5Herrmann took 4 of 5
S4Herrmann4Lopata1n = 5Herrmann took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home360%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricHerrmannLopataH − LBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match38.437.8+0.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHerrmannLopataBasisWin rate · lifetime219 / 447 vs 138 / 26749%51.7%219 / 447 vs 138 / 267Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HerrmannHerrmann 1.83/Lopata 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Herrmann · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Herrmann won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 5 · 09:45V. Herrmann4111136113V. Lopata389111171
WAug 30 · 16:47V. Herrmann4381311113V. Lopata321111821
WAug 30 · 13:45V. Herrmann4311813113V. Lopata367111171
LOct 27 · 18:05V. Herrmann4027111192V. Lopata43111137113
LOct 27 · 16:00V. Herrmann25331181V. Lopata4011117113
V. Herrmann10
WSep 12 · 15:15O. Chadima1.8312460V. Herrmann1.831411113WSep 12 · 13:45V. Herrmann1.9161113113L. Stoces1.801181171LSep 11 · 20:38V. Herrmann1.5385111262J. Snr2.381111610113LSep 11 · 20:00P. Maly1.67119113113V. Herrmann2.1091181192WSep 11 · 19:00J. Snr2.00117831V. Herrmann1.7361111113LSep 11 · 17:30L. Krasl1.40116135113V. Herrmann2.758111111102LSep 10 · 20:43Z. Kuksa1.6711118113V. Herrmann2.10991191LSep 10 · 19:45V. Herrmann1.83115941Z. Kuksa1.8351111113LSep 10 · 18:15O. Chadima1.91817911123V. Herrmann1.801115119102WSep 10 · 17:45P. Provaznik1.831011961V. Herrmann1.8312911113
V. Lopata10
WSep 12 · 15:45L. Stoces1.837570V. Lopata1.831111113WSep 11 · 16:34V. Lopata1.80115119113A. Pavlik1.9171191192WSep 11 · 16:00P. Hala2.2511551152V. Lopata1.57911118113LSep 11 · 15:00O. Horak1.801111113V. Lopata1.917420LSep 11 · 13:30A. Pavlik2.201211113V. Lopata1.6110750WSep 5 · 12:19V. Lopata1.67101111113P. Maly2.10126851WSep 5 · 11:45V. Lopata2.0012911113L. Kolman1.731011741LSep 5 · 10:15P. Maly2.00119713113V. Lopata1.73511111142LSep 5 · 09:45V. Herrmann2.0011136113V. Lopata1.739111171LAug 30 · 16:47V. Lopata1.611111821V. Herrmann2.2081311113
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