TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116973
Played Sep 12Finished
Ludek Stoces
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711511711––––
Vladimir Lopata
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVladimir Lopata to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLudek Stoces above · Vladimir Lopata below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 52 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Vladimir Lopata at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Ludek Stoces 2–1 Vladimir Lopata Vladimir Lopata has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:15What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Lopata
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stoces 1536 vs Lopata 1592
Lopata
Correct
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stoces 20% vs Lopata 40%
Lopata
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stoces 40% vs Lopata 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stoces -2 · Lopata -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lopata)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lopata form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStoces 1.83 / Lopata 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lopata)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13116973
Stoces1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Lopata1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeStoces2wins
AwayLopata1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderStoces leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stoces2Lopata1n = 3Stoces took 2 of 3
S2Stoces1Lopata2n = 3Lopata took 2 of 3
S3Stoces2Lopata1n = 3Stoces took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricStocesLopataS − LBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match35.733.3+2.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStocesLopataBasisWin rate · lifetime87 / 201 vs 138 / 26843.3%51.5%87 / 201 vs 138 / 268Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LopataStoces 1.83/Lopata 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lopata · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lopata won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 29 · 14:45L. Stoces501161210113V. Lopata46711101262
LAug 22 · 11:00L. Stoces2595110V. Lopata351111133
WAug 30 · 11:30L. Stoces321111103V. Lopata197750
L. Stoces10
WSep 12 · 16:16L. Stoces1.951117113O. Chadima1.7531570LSep 12 · 14:15O. Chadima2.10111111113L. Stoces1.67139681LSep 12 · 13:45V. Herrmann1.9161113113L. Stoces1.801181171WSep 6 · 08:29L. Stoces1.221112113M. Taranko4.0051070LSep 6 · 07:45L. Stoces2.3886121122D. Brichacek1.531111106113LSep 6 · 06:15M. Taranko2.504111410143L. Stoces1.501191212122WSep 6 · 05:45T. Hanke2.001191061L. Stoces1.7391112113LAug 30 · 20:34L. Kolman1.5711811113L. Stoces2.25511781LAug 30 · 19:30D. Brichacek1.671211113L. Stoces2.1010940WAug 30 · 19:00L. Stoces2.38111176113L. Kolman1.5357111192
V. Lopata10
LSep 12 · 14:45V. Herrmann1.83911511113V. Lopata1.8311311882WSep 11 · 16:34V. Lopata1.80115119113A. Pavlik1.9171191192WSep 11 · 16:00P. Hala2.2511551152V. Lopata1.57911118113LSep 11 · 15:00O. Horak1.801111113V. Lopata1.917420LSep 11 · 13:30A. Pavlik2.201211113V. Lopata1.6110750WSep 5 · 12:19V. Lopata1.67101111113P. Maly2.10126851WSep 5 · 11:45V. Lopata2.0012911113L. Kolman1.731011741LSep 5 · 10:15P. Maly2.00119713113V. Lopata1.73511111142LSep 5 · 09:45V. Herrmann2.0011136113V. Lopata1.739111171LAug 30 · 16:47V. Lopata1.611111821V. Herrmann2.2081311113
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