TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13117544
Played Sep 12Finished
Vit Herrmann
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
6111181311117––
Ludek Stoces
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVit Herrmann to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVit Herrmann above · Ludek Stoces below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 78 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Vit Herrmann at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:03What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stoces
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Herrmann 1598 vs Stoces 1571
Herrmann
Correct
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Herrmann 20% vs Stoces 40%
Stoces
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Herrmann 40% vs Stoces 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Herrmann -2 · Stoces +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Herrmann)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stoces form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHerrmann 1.91 / Stoces 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Herrmann)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13117544
Herrmann1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 67 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back28% 17 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 26
Stoces1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite49% won 18 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it39% 7 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricHerrmannStocesBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 446 vs 88 / 20348.9%43.4%218 / 446 vs 88 / 203Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HerrmannHerrmann 1.91/Stoces 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Herrmann · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Herrmann won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
V. Herrmann10
WSep 12 · 15:15O. Chadima1.8312460V. Herrmann1.831411113WSep 12 · 14:45V. Herrmann1.83911511113V. Lopata1.8311311882LSep 11 · 20:38V. Herrmann1.5385111262J. Snr2.381111610113LSep 11 · 20:00P. Maly1.67119113113V. Herrmann2.1091181192WSep 11 · 19:00J. Snr2.00117831V. Herrmann1.7361111113LSep 11 · 17:30L. Krasl1.40116135113V. Herrmann2.758111111102LSep 10 · 20:43Z. Kuksa1.6711118113V. Herrmann2.10991191LSep 10 · 19:45V. Herrmann1.83115941Z. Kuksa1.8351111113LSep 10 · 18:15O. Chadima1.91817911123V. Herrmann1.801115119102WSep 10 · 17:45P. Provaznik1.831011961V. Herrmann1.8312911113
L. Stoces10
LSep 12 · 15:45L. Stoces1.837570V. Lopata1.831111113LSep 12 · 14:15O. Chadima2.10111111113L. Stoces1.67139681WSep 6 · 08:29L. Stoces1.221112113M. Taranko4.0051070LSep 6 · 07:45L. Stoces2.3886121122D. Brichacek1.531111106113LSep 6 · 06:15M. Taranko2.504111410143L. Stoces1.501191212122WSep 6 · 05:45T. Hanke2.001191061L. Stoces1.7391112113LAug 30 · 20:34L. Kolman1.5711811113L. Stoces2.25511781LAug 30 · 19:30D. Brichacek1.671211113L. Stoces2.1010940WAug 30 · 19:00L. Stoces2.38111176113L. Kolman1.5357111192WAug 30 · 18:00L. Stoces2.2011211113M. Hajek1.611110781
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