TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111430
Played Sep 11Finished
Petr Maly
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119911118311119
Vit Herrmann
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Maly to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Maly above · Vit Herrmann below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 93 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Petr Maly at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Petr Maly 22–17 Vit Herrmann Vit Herrmann has won 17 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:33What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Maly
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-17 in 39
Maly
Correct
gap of 5 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maly 1503 vs Herrmann 1626
Herrmann
Wrong
both rated, 123 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maly 60% vs Herrmann 20%
Maly
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maly 50% vs Herrmann 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Maly +2 · Herrmann +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Maly)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Herrmann form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaly 1.67 / Herrmann 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Maly)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13111430
Maly1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 67 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it90% 28 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it68% 48 of 71
Herrmann2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog52% won 67 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back29% 17 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaly7wins
AwayHerrmann3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMaly leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaly83.3%5 of 6
AwayHerrmann50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maly6Herrmann4n = 10Maly took 6 of 10
S2Maly5Herrmann5n = 10split evenly
S3Maly8Herrmann2n = 10Maly took 8 of 10
S4Maly4Herrmann2n = 6Maly took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMalyHerrmannM − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.133.0+5.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMalyHerrmannBasisWin rate · lifetime236 / 442 vs 218 / 44453.4%49.1%236 / 442 vs 218 / 444Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MalyMaly 1.67/Herrmann 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Maly · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Maly won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 11:15P. Maly—12111171V. Herrmann—14138103
LAug 23 · 17:01P. Maly—3490V. Herrmann—1111113
WAug 23 · 13:30P. Maly—981111113V. Herrmann—11117372
WJul 26 · 17:03P. Maly—1113113V. Herrmann—91190
WJul 26 · 14:30P. Maly—1111123V. Herrmann—56100
WJun 27 · 11:30P. Maly—101112113V. Herrmann—1261061
WJun 13 · 11:15P. Maly—111111113V. Herrmann—513551
WJun 6 · 15:15P. Maly—11119113V. Herrmann—961121
LMay 31 · 14:45P. Maly—12211592V. Herrmann—1011511113
WMay 3 · 15:00P. Maly—1111143V. Herrmann—67120
P. Maly10
WSep 11 · 18:30L. Krasl1.914115111P. Maly1.8011911133WSep 11 · 18:00J. Snr2.2091151142P. Maly1.61116117113LSep 8 · 20:43J. Simek1.539171110143P. Maly2.381115412122WSep 8 · 19:15P. Maly2.001111113R. Merkl1.739770LSep 8 · 18:15P. Maly2.251211512102J. Simek1.571431110123WSep 8 · 17:15P. Maly1.8391111113J. Juppa1.83114381LSep 5 · 12:19V. Lopata1.67101111113P. Maly2.10126851LSep 5 · 11:15P. Maly1.6112111171V. Herrmann2.2014138103WSep 5 · 10:15P. Maly2.00119713113V. Lopata1.73511111142LSep 5 · 09:15P. Maly2.25124871L. Kolman1.57101111113
V. Herrmann10
WSep 11 · 19:00J. Snr2.00117831V. Herrmann1.7361111113LSep 11 · 17:30L. Krasl1.40116135113V. Herrmann2.758111111102LSep 10 · 20:43Z. Kuksa1.6711118113V. Herrmann2.10991191LSep 10 · 19:45V. Herrmann1.83115941Z. Kuksa1.8351111113LSep 10 · 18:15O. Chadima1.91817911123V. Herrmann1.801115119102WSep 10 · 17:45P. Provaznik1.831011961V. Herrmann1.8312911113WSep 6 · 13:00J. Juppa1.50911791V. Herrmann2.5011811113WSep 6 · 11:30V. Herrmann1.9114911113S. Kalensky1.801211691LSep 6 · 10:30V. Herrmann1.80891181J. Juppa1.9111113113WSep 5 · 11:15P. Maly1.6112111171V. Herrmann2.2014138103
Upcoming Matches
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V. Herrmann
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