TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111042
Played Sep 11Finished
Jakub Nemecek Snr
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911116511117411
Petr Maly
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:03 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timePetr Maly to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Nemecek Snr above · Petr Maly below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 86 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Petr Maly at 54.9%
86 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Nemecek Snr 6–6 Petr Maly Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:03What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Maly
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Snr 1546 vs Maly 1477
Snr
Wrong
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Snr 40% vs Maly 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Snr 60% vs Maly 30%
Snr
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Snr -1 · Maly -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Maly)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maly form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnr 2.20 / Maly 1.61
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Maly)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13111042
Snr2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog53% won 8 of 15
Down 0–1, comes back29% 2 of 7
Maly1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 67 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it90% 28 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it68% 48 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSnr5wins
AwayMaly5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSnr80%4 of 5
AwayMaly80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Snr5Maly5n = 10split evenly
S2Snr4Maly6n = 10Maly took 6 of 10
S3Snr3Maly7n = 10Maly took 7 of 10
S4Snr4Maly4n = 8split evenly
S5Snr3Maly1n = 4Snr took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSnrMalyS − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.043.1−4.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnrMalyBasisWin rate · lifetime63 / 145 vs 235 / 44443.5%52.9%63 / 145 vs 235 / 444Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MalySnr 2.20/Maly 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Maly · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Maly won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMar 5 · 20:00J. Snr—111110133P. Maly—8912111
WDec 7 · 15:00J. Snr—11101111153P. Maly—812813132
LNov 9 · 14:45J. Snr—61011101P. Maly—11127123
LOct 27 · 19:45J. Snr—115121172P. Maly—711147113
WSep 14 · 14:45J. Snr—141118133P. Maly—1291111112
LAug 16 · 15:30J. Snr—79100P. Maly—1111123
WAug 3 · 17:05J. Snr—111511113P. Maly—91111992
WAug 3 · 16:00J. Snr—51112103P. Maly—1161081
LAug 2 · 10:00J. Snr—711991P. Maly—11711113
LMay 18 · 09:45J. Snr—5670P. Maly—1111113
J. Snr10
LSep 3 · 21:13S. Kalensky1.7361111113J. Snr2.00118871WSep 3 · 19:30J. Snr2.101211119113M. Cizek1.6714751172LSep 3 · 18:30J. Snr2.0061111242S. Kalensky1.73117811113WSep 3 · 17:30J. Snr1.73871111113F. Kubos2.0011118572LSep 1 · 20:58S. Kalensky1.8371113113J. Snr1.831181151WSep 1 · 19:30J. Snr2.501113133M. Cizek1.50411110LSep 1 · 18:30J. Snr1.8081151152S. Kalensky1.91114119113WSep 1 · 17:30J. Snr2.20122911113J. Juppa1.61101111632WAug 26 · 21:08V. Herrmann1.6110440J. Snr2.201211113WAug 26 · 19:30J. Tichy1.671118711102J. Snr2.101316118123
P. Maly10
WSep 11 · 18:30L. Krasl1.914115111P. Maly1.8011911133LSep 8 · 20:43J. Simek1.539171110143P. Maly2.381115412122WSep 8 · 19:15P. Maly2.001111113R. Merkl1.739770LSep 8 · 18:15P. Maly2.251211512102J. Simek1.571431110123WSep 8 · 17:15P. Maly1.8391111113J. Juppa1.83114381LSep 5 · 12:19V. Lopata1.67101111113P. Maly2.10126851LSep 5 · 11:15P. Maly1.6112111171V. Herrmann2.2014138103WSep 5 · 10:15P. Maly2.00119713113V. Lopata1.73511111142LSep 5 · 09:15P. Maly2.25124871L. Kolman1.57101111113LSep 2 · 20:34P. Maly1.91613631J. Jnr1.80111111113
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